How Democrats could gerrymander New York

With assistance from Amira McKee

WHAT COULD BE ON TAP FOR 2028:

New York has yet to witness a full-on partisan gerrymander in its congressional districting history, but Governor Kathy Hochul is eager to change that. Historically, power has been shared in Albany, leading to a more moderate approach in redistricting, especially evident in the 2024 cycle. After a series of court battles, the Democrat-drawn maps fell short of the aggressive reconfiguration some party stalwarts had envisioned.

Hochul’s latest maneuver is a direct response to the Republican gerrymandering tactics employed in Texas, reflecting a shift in strategy that may tilt the scales in favor of Democrats.

However, any potential redistricting in the Empire State is fraught with complications. The earliest it could materialize would be in 2028, contingent upon voters approving a constitutional amendment to allow mid-decade adjustments. This leads to an intriguing question: what would an unabashed New York gerrymander look like?

The political landscape of 2028 remains uncertain, with the possibility of incumbents being ousted and shifts in voter sentiment across various regions. Should Donald Trump prevail in his ambitions, a new Census could further disrupt the current mapmaking dynamics. As it stands, a couple of Republican incumbents might have cause for concern—potentially four, depending on how the lines are drawn.

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis has consistently received over 60 percent of the vote in her last two elections. Her district, which currently melds Staten Island with the more Republican-leaning sectors of Brooklyn, could see significant changes. Democrats have previously attempted to stretch her district into the typically left-leaning Park Slope area, turning it into a competitive battleground. A more aggressive strategy might even coalesce Staten Island with parts of Manhattan, echoing the district configurations of the 1970s.

In Westchester, Democratic Rep. George Latimer enjoys a comfortable lead, having garnered 72 percent of the vote in 2024. His Republican counterpart, Rep. Mike Lawler, is not as fortunate, with only 52 percent. This opens the door for a potential swap of certain towns, shifting them from Latimer’s district to Lawler’s, thereby increasing the Democratic presence in Lawler’s territory.

The four congressional seats on Long Island are currently divided between Democratic Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi, and Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino. Potential adjustments could see Suozzi’s district pulled further into New York City, while Gillen’s could encroach upon the territory held by Queens Congressman Gregory Meeks. This would position Democratic strongholds to merge with portions of Republican districts, making either Garbarino or LaLota more vulnerable, but not both, according to Hofstra University’s Larry Levy.

In upstate New York, Democratic Rep. Tim Kennedy, alongside Republican Reps. Claudia Tenney and Nick Langworthy, each received around 65 percent of the vote in 2024, while Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle secured 60 percent. By strategically combining portions of Kennedy and Morelle’s districts with more Democratic-friendly towns like Geneva and Oswego, Tenney’s district could be rendered more competitive.

Nonetheless, the options may be limited. “Kennedy and Morelle are kind of islands of Democrats in a sea of Republicans,” a Buffalo Democrat observed. The end result might just risk two Democratic incumbents without making Tenney’s seat actually winnable. — Bill Mahoney

MAMDANI TURNS UP PRESSURE:

In a strategic move, Zohran Mamdani is ramping up pressure on Democrats who have yet to endorse his mayoral campaign, leveraging a New York Times report revealing conversations between rival Andrew Cuomo and President Donald Trump regarding the upcoming mayoral race.

“My administration will be Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” Mamdani proclaimed, asserting that his policies aimed at uplifting working-class New Yorkers would expose Trump’s failures in serving those communities.

Accusing Cuomo of “conspiring” with Trump, Mamdani addressed reporters in Lower Manhattan, outside 26 Federal Plaza, where federal immigration agents have been detaining migrants. Having defeated Cuomo by a striking 12 points in the June primary, Mamdani stood alongside labor union leaders who had previously supported Cuomo.

“We know that Andrew Cuomo will sell working people out for his interests, for the interests of the billionaires that support him, for the interests of Donald Trump,” Mamdani stated, “because all of those interests are lining up as one and the same.”

In response, Cuomo, now running as an independent, downplayed the report, claiming he couldn’t recall the last time he spoke to Trump and dismissed the story as mere “palace intrigue.” He did mention having communicated with Trump regarding other matters during his governorship, particularly during the Covid crisis.

Cuomo insisted he would defend New York City against Trump “with every ounce of my strength,” despite reports that he has told business leaders he’s not “personally” seeking a confrontation with the president.

In a separate statement, Mayor Eric Adams, also running as an independent, remarked that he has never discussed the campaign with Trump, maintaining that his conversations with the president are focused on securing resources for the city.

Mamdani expressed a willingness to engage with Trump to enhance the lives of New Yorkers. “If he wants to actually act upon the cheaper groceries that he told us he would deliver, that is a different conversation,” he noted. — Emily Ngo, Joe Anuta and Amira McKee

‘LOOK ON THE HAT’:

The inaugural borough office for Adams’ reelection campaign has taken residence within the historic headquarters of one of Brooklyn’s political clubs. The self-proclaimed “child from Brownsville” officially opened his Mill Basin office on Thursday, revealing that the Thomas Jefferson Democratic Club will serve as the campaign’s Brooklyn hub, now adorned with “re-elect Eric for Mayor” posters.

“Why Brooklyn?” Adams remarked at the event, gesturing toward his cap. “Brooklyn is the place I was born. When you look on the hat, it says Brownsville. It was the place that shaped and made me. It was the place that taught me the fortitude that I have right now to lead this city.”

Adams’ campaign team stated they plan to roll out additional offices throughout the five boroughs, despite the recent denial of millions in public matching funds by the New York City Campaign Finance Board, placing him at a significant financial disadvantage against Mamdani.

This isn’t Adams’ first encounter with the CFB; past audits have flagged irregularities in his campaign financing practices, including a 900-page audit of his 2021 campaign that uncovered over 150 undocumented fundraising events. When pressed about his current office rental expenses, Adams reassured that all payments are recorded in campaign finance filings, inviting scrutiny.

Nevertheless, Adams brushed off questions about reorganizing his campaign staff or abandoning the matching program in favor of larger donations. “The life of a person born in Brownsville, you’re always meeting obstacles,” he stated, gesturing to his cap once more. “But in all those obstacles, what happened? I’m the mayor, because I’m a working-class, resilient hard-working New Yorker, and we’re used to obstacles.” — Amira McKee

DEPARTMENT OF WISHFUL THINKING:

City Hall has recently requested ideas from various agencies for Mayor Eric Adams’ 2026 State of the City address, a rather optimistic assumption that he will secure reelection despite current poll numbers suggesting otherwise.

On Wednesday, Deputy Mayor for Communications Fabien Levy circulated an email encouraging agency submissions by August 11, outlining plans for what some may call a “theoretical” address.

This request comes amidst Adams’ independent campaign in a predominantly Democratic city, where the Campaign Finance Board seems intent on denying him substantial public matching funds. According to the latest polls, Adams is trailing significantly, capturing only 7 percent of the vote behind Mamdani, Cuomo, and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa.

Despite this underwhelming position, Levy expressed confidence in the mayor’s chances. “New York City’s public servants are at their best when putting politics aside and staying focused on the work—and that is exactly what we are doing,” he stated. “The State of the City takes months of thoughtful planning, and we intend to deliver a speech in early 2026 that is as groundbreaking as ever.”

Though the exercise may seem futile, some municipal workers view it as a strategy for job security. Should Mamdani win, senior staffers might have a ready-made plan to present to the new administration, ostensibly proving their value.

“Zohran’s people are going to gravitate to those who have an agenda that aligns with his populism,” another city staffer noted, emphasizing the precariousness of Adams’ position. However, Levy remains steadfast in his belief that the current administration will persist. “We have appreciated POLITICO’s coverage of our past four State of the City addresses, and we look forward to their continued coverage of Mayor Adams’ next four,” he concluded. — Joe Anuta

— MEGABILL CUTS: New York’s social service providers are bracing for deep federal funding cuts as poverty rates rise among the state’s elderly. (New York Focus)

— ANOTHER LAWSUIT: A former top NYPD lawyer is suing the department, alleging she was fired for investigating Adams’ former Chief of Department Jeffrey Maddrey. (Gothamist)

— SLOW DOWN: New York City has instituted a new e-bike speed limit, but local officials lack the means to enforce it. (The Wall Street Journal)

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