A “climate hush” has emerged within the Democratic Party, reflecting a shift in focus from climate change to addressing the high cost of living. This pivot is seen as an attempt to understand why the Democrats lost the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump. Democratic politicians have since reduced their mentions of climate change on social media, and in their press releases. While some candidates in this summer’s primaries may include it in their platforms, it’s uncommon for them to campaign heavily on the issue.
However, a new report challenges the notion that discussing climate change could lead to a loss of votes for Democrats. The 2035 Initiative, based at the University of California, Santa Barbara, released polling data suggesting that emphasizing climate change could actually boost support for Democratic candidates. This data is timely, as it precedes primaries in crucial states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia, which could influence whether Democrats reclaim control of Congress.
“Our data shows pretty firmly that adding climate change to the mix is neutral to helpful from a political perspective,” stated Matto Mildenberger, a political science professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who contributed to the report. His team conducted surveys with about 3,500 participants, ensuring the sample was representative of the U.S. electorate. He described it as the first rigorous evaluation of the “climate hush” hypothesis.
The pushback against climate hushing is growing, led by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island, and other experts in political science and public opinion. Tré Easton, vice president for public affairs at Searchlight Institute, a Democratic-aligned think tank, noted a significant effort to underscore the importance of Democrats continuing to discuss climate change.
Last September, Searchlight advised against mentioning “climate change” directly, a strategy termed climate hushing. Easton disputes this label, suggesting that candidates should integrate climate change discussions within energy policy contexts, advocating for a balanced approach to meet electricity demands.
Mildenberger’s research presents a more assertive strategy. His polling indicates that climate change isn’t as politically damaging as perceived, with about two-thirds of respondents supporting government investments in solar and wind energy, regardless of whether the initiative was framed as “addressing climate change,” “developing new energy sources,” or “reducing pollution and protecting clean air.” Around 60% of surveyed Republicans also supported such policies, unaffected by the use of the term “climate.”
When voters were presented with candidates prioritizing climate change, these candidates were more frequently chosen, leading to a 4.5 percentage point rise in selection. For Republican-leaning voters, it had little effect, although it did reduce a candidate’s chances among staunch Republicans. The polling also revealed that climate action supporters are more inclined to vote based on this issue than opponents, suggesting that discussing climate change might not cost votes.
Organizations criticized in the report for discouraging Democrats from discussing climate change remain unconvinced by the survey results. Liam Kerr, co-founder of WelcomePAC, a center-left political action committee, argued that Democrats winning Trump voters often followed contrary advice. In the 2024 election, Representative Jared Golden from Maine campaigned against Biden’s electric car mandate and supported increasing domestic oil and gas production, securing re-election in a district favoring Trump by nearly 10 points. Similarly, Ruben Gallego, a Democratic senator from Arizona, triumphed in a Trump-leaning state by promoting a comprehensive energy plan to address inflation, encouraging discussions on energy affordability over direct climate change debates.
Despite differing viewpoints, there is consensus that climate change is not a top voter priority. Mildenberger’s research ranked it 12th out of 15 issues, trailing behind the cost of living and health care, but ahead of foreign policy and AI. This prioritization has sparked debate. Easton argues it’s not worth pursuing minimal electoral gains on a low-priority issue.
“If I am an operative advising a candidate, and you’re like, ‘I get a very small benefit if I talk about this thing,’ I’m not going to tell you to talk about that thing,” Easton said. “I want to encourage you to try and find a thing that gets you the biggest benefit you can with voters, especially in these hard-to-win places.”
The debate divides into two camps: one believes climate action can be achieved quietly, avoiding partisan debates, while the other fears silence weakens its perceived importance, diminishing political resolve.
Mildenberger aligns with the latter, contending that without ongoing discussion and attention, Democrats may miss the chance to enact climate policy when in power. He cited the 2020 presidential campaign’s climate debate as crucial for passing the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, though most of it was later repealed by Republicans.
Others suggest that subtle climate policies can be embedded within larger bills, avoiding media scrutiny and polarization. Easton emphasized that viewing policies as partisan projects hinders lasting success.
Easton believes climate change remains integral to the Democratic Party, even if less frequently mentioned. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani rarely discussed it during his campaign, yet Easton trusts his dedication to climate action. Ultimately, Democrats must secure office to address climate change or other issues.
“I get it — if the cause of your life is fighting climate change and this is what you’ve devoted your career to, I understand why you want to put out work like this [survey],” Easton said. “The cause of my life is making sure that autocrats and authoritarians don’t win our government again. And hopefully when the folks who defeat those autocrats and authoritarians get in power, they will do work on any host of important things, including climate change.”
