How to Avoid Misunderstanding Chinese Nuclear Weapons Policy

Analyzing China’s Strategic Deterrence Capabilities

Recently, a panelist brought attention to a statement from an authoritative Chinese document during a presentation on the possibility of a Cold War in the 21st century. The document mentioned China’s decision to “accelerate the development of strategic deterrent capabilities,” sparking discussions on what this term entails.

In Chinese military texts, the term “strategic” goes beyond nuclear weapons and encompasses a range of critical weapons systems. These include conventional missiles, anti-satellite weapons, cyber weapons, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. Chinese military doctrine emphasizes the strategic significance of all operations, reflecting the importance they place on these capabilities in conflict scenarios.

While in the United States, “strategic” often refers to nuclear weapons in the context of deterrence, for China, it signifies something critical that can determine the outcome of a conflict.

Understanding the Historical Context

In a report to the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping discussed efforts to create a strategic deterrent capability system that includes space, cyber, and autonomous weapons. The term “strategic deterrence” has been a recurring theme in Chinese military strategy, reflecting their focus on modernizing and keeping pace with global developments.

A professor from China’s National University of Defense Technology interpreted Xi’s comments as a response to the expanding strategic deterrent systems of the United States. This reflects China’s efforts to bridge the technological gap and enhance its national defense capabilities.

China’s long-term reform program, initiated in the mid-1980s, aimed at modernizing its defense capabilities while prioritizing economic development. The recent emphasis on accelerating strategic deterrent capabilities is part of this broader strategy to keep up with global advancements.

Promoting Dialogue and Understanding

Instead of framing discussions around the inevitability of a new Cold War, it may be more productive to focus on avoiding an arms race and fostering positive outcomes. Empathizing with the perspectives of all parties involved, including Chinese leaders, can lead to better insights into their intentions and decision-making processes.

By carefully analyzing the language used in Chinese policy documents and engaging in constructive dialogue, we can work towards a future where mutual understanding and cooperation prevail over conflict and competition. This approach can help prevent a self-fulfilling prophecy of an arms race and promote a more peaceful and stable international environment.