How to Make the Next Trump-Kim Meeting a Success

In a noteworthy address this week, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressed his readiness to engage in discussions with President Trump, as reported during a session of the Supreme People’s Assembly. South Korea’s newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has shown willingness to negotiate within the framework proposed by Kim. The previous talks during Trump’s first term, which brought them together on two occasions, generated substantial hopes but ended in disappointment, failing to alter the landscape of US-North Korean relations. The high expectations ultimately gave way to a cycle of blame and frustration from both sides.

The crux of the issue lies in North Korea’s status as a de facto nuclear weapons state. The US Secretary of State, along with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea, promptly dismissed Kim’s overture, maintaining that denuclearization is a fundamental prerequisite for any constructive dialogue. Kim has iterated that North Korea will retain its nuclear status as long as nations like the United States, China, and Russia maintain their own arsenals. While he is open to conversation, he makes it clear that denuclearization is off the table.

President Lee of South Korea suggested a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear armament. However, this proposal faces significant challenges, particularly given the ongoing expansion and enhancement of nuclear capabilities by both its nuclear-armed neighbors, South Korea and Japan, and the United States. Despite this, there exists a different avenue for dialogue regarding North Korea’s nuclear arsenal that could potentially gain traction.

A Revived Proposal for the Region

A recent comprehensive study on Northeast Asian security has rekindled discussions on denuclearization, likening it to “a weathered carriage on a viable path.” A persistent theme in these discussions has been the formation of a nuclear weapons–free zone in Northeast Asia. Most iterations envision a combination of a denuclearized Korean peninsula alongside a US commitment to refrain from deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the region. The new assessment posits that any strategy to establish such a zone must also consider scaling back the nuclear programs and policies of regional powers, including China, Russia, and the US.

A move towards establishing this zone would be a lengthy process and would necessitate significant compromises from all nuclear states involved, including North Korea. However, such discussions might be palatable to Kim, as they would allow North Korea’s nuclear capabilities to be treated equally alongside those of China, Russia, and the United States, transforming the narrative from that of an isolated pariah state to an equal participant in international dialogue.

The Broader Implications

It is essential for the United States, its allies, China, and Russia to create a platform where they can converse as equals, addressing the looming risks of nuclear conflict and collaboratively seeking pathways to mitigate those dangers. Although the notion of a nuclear weapons–free zone in Northeast Asia might appear far-fetched, the very act of discussing it can serve as a strategic vehicle for enhancing regional security. This could allow governments to navigate the myriad issues and disagreements that fuel their insecurities, driving them towards reliance on nuclear arsenals and the threats they pose.

In light of the swiftly transforming geopolitical landscape, which witnesses the erosion of established norms and regulations from the post-Cold War era, the potential for both risks and opportunities is ever-present. Enhancing diplomatic relations between the United States and North Korea, between the Koreas, and including Japan, stands as a reachable goal for all parties involved. Creating a sustainable regional forum to explore these diplomatic avenues could be a monumental achievement, possibly even deserving of a Nobel Prize. The initiative for a nuclear weapons–free zone in Northeast Asia, while seemingly out of sync with the prevailing global atmosphere, remains a viable pathway toward enduring peace and security in the region.