McALLEN, Texas — Just miles from the U.S.-Mexico border, Ken Paxton is aiming to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s significant gains with Hispanic voters.
The Texas GOP Senate candidate, addressing hundreds of supporters at his inaugural campaign rally in this predominantly Latino region last week, outlined how Republicans plan to achieve this: by highlighting Trump’s border closure and attacking Democrats through cultural issues, while overlooking the negative impact of mass deportations on the region.
Supporters, dressed in iconic MAGA red and a few wearing Trump 2028 hats, assembled at an outdoor beer hall in 100-degree heat to welcome the Republican Senate nominee and other candidates. The attendees eagerly consumed the Republicans’ frequent criticisms of Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico. Eric Flores, challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, labeled Talarico a “gay vegan” and “low T.” Paxton also criticized Talarico, a seminarian student and critic of Christian nationalism, for referring to himself as a “Christian who hates Christianity.”
This tactic is central to Paxton’s strategy as the Republican Senate nominee to cut into Talarico’s growing lead in the polls with Hispanic voters, a group that could be decisive in determining who wins the competitive Senate seat and other races that will shape which party controls Washington in November.
“Once this community knows what [Talarico’s] views are on transitioning boys into girls, and girls into boys, and boys and girls sports, they’re not going to support it,” Paxton told reporters after the rally, responding to a question about how he plans to maintain Hispanic voter support after they leaned toward Trump in 2024.
Texas Republicans have used similar methods in the past. Sen. Ted Cruz dominated the airwaves in the 2024 Senate race with attack ads about transgender youth in sports against former Rep. Colin Allred. Republicans also dubbed Wendy Davis “abortion Barbie” after her protest against an anti-abortion law in the state legislature.
However, beyond the orchestrated event, the community is struggling under the president’s increasingly unpopular immigration policies, providing Democrats an opportunity with Latinos as they try to break a decades-long losing streak in state races. Discussions with local lawmakers, business leaders, and voters from both parties show that Democratic candidates like Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa have successfully appealed to Hispanic voters facing economic challenges due to Trump’s policies.
Talarico, who was in McAllen for an event 16 hours after Paxton’s, concentrated his message on the cost of living, distributing hot meals and advocating for reversing healthcare cuts made under the GOP budget bill from the previous year.
“He’s pretty steady and focused on the issues that matter to families,” commented Democratic State Sen. Juan Hinojosa, whose district stretches from Corpus Christi to McAllen.
“Democrats get sidetracked on all these cultural issues, and they need to stay focused on what I call the bread butter issues, issues that impact families directly, the kitchen table issues,” he said. “Democrats need to stay away from biting the hook that’s being put out by Paxton.”
A community being squeezed
The Rio Grande Valley is feeling the weight of Trump’s policies, with economic pressures evident in McAllen.
Deportations have depleted workforces in key sectors like construction, leaving projects unfinished. Traffic congestion at the border has hampered retail and restaurant business as fewer Mexicans cross into the U.S. for short visits.
The entire border area is under stress. Laredo, more than 150 miles from McAllen, is a major trade hub, and its leaders warn that Trump’s tariffs and potential withdrawal from the USMCA trade agreement could severely impact international commerce flowing through the city.
“When the U.S. doesn’t provide economic opportunity for the people at the border, it will create this situation,” Laredo Mayor Victor D. Treviño, a Democrat, stated in an interview.
The Paxton campaign downplayed concerns about Democrats gaining traction with Latinos, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, instead emphasizing cultural issues that Republicans claim resonate with socially conservative Latinos.
“Look, Hispanic families aren’t voting for a woke vegan who says God is nonbinary and wants to Latinx our children,” said Alex Alarcon, director of Hispanic outreach for the Paxton campaign, in a statement. “We’re proud of our culture and our faith, and Ken Paxton has spent his career fighting for us: a secure border to protect our families, a cost of living we can actually afford, and the freedom to live by our values.”
Yet, momentum appears to be shifting toward Democrats.
Interviews with a dozen residents along the border indicate satisfaction with the record-low illegal border crossings, fulfilling one of Trump’s key campaign promises and a reason for his support among Hispanic voters. However, they also feel the crackdown has been excessive. Over 60% of Hispanics believe Trump’s deportation policies, including widespread ICE agent deployment, have been overly harsh, according to a July POLITICO Poll.
Last week in McAllen, the community was shocked by the arrest of a nun by ICE while she was walking to church. Although she was released after GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar intervened, interviews reveal that residents continue to live in fear: even U.S. citizens check for ID before going out, and many avoid the border.
Statewide, one in five Hispanic business owners reported an employee deported in the past year, and 70% have felt the impact of Trump’s tariffs, according to a June survey by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council, shared first with POLITICO. Talarico holds a seven-point lead over Paxton among respondents, despite a plurality identifying as Republican.
A Republican source close to the race, speaking anonymously, argued that Paxton could benefit from competitive House races in South Texas, where Republicans Tano Tijerina and Flores aim to unseat Reps. Henry Cuellar and Gonzalez, respectively, and Rep. Monica De La Cruz faces a challenge from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. GOP campaigns have established multiple field centers in these districts, favoring Republicans in the new Congressional map, which is expected to help Paxton’s campaign, the source said.
They noted that internal messaging shows some attacks on Talarico, particularly regarding past gender comments, have resonated significantly with Hispanic men.
Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Initiative, a conservative group in South Texas, said Trump’s border closure has reinforced Hispanic support, while Democrats lack viable pro-growth economic plans.
“Democrats have failed to give Latino voters something to vote for, and that they’ve only focused solely on something you know for us to vote against. And that’s not good enough,” he said. “[Latinos] want less tax burden, less regulatory burden, more energy production.”
Talarico’s pitch to Hispanics
Talarico also visited McAllen, a day after Paxton, to host a fundraising event — the final stop on a 750-mile bus tour of border towns aimed at delivering a message of lowering costs and creating jobs. To present himself as a tough-on-immigration Democrat, Talarico introduced a border security plan that involves hiring more Border Patrol agents, a major employer in South Texas, and increasing immigration judges to address the asylum backlog.
This is part of his strategy to expand his current lead over Paxton with Hispanic voters, with a New York Times poll in June showing Talarico leading the demographic by a 61% to 29% margin — a significant shift after Trump secured 55% of Hispanic voters in Texas in 2024.
“You could drive a truck through the margin of error on the Times’ subsample,” Alarcon, Paxton’s Hispanic outreach director, stated. “The fact is nobody is winning Hispanic voters by default this cycle. We’ll be in Spanish-language media from the Valley to Dallas, talking about groceries, gas, health care and a secure border.”
Nonetheless, Talarico’s lead gives Democratic leaders hope in their national struggle with Republicans over Hispanic voters: maintaining his lead with Texas’ sizable Latino population through November could indicate that Republican gains over the last decade were temporary before the 2028 presidential race.
In the scorching midday sun in McAllen, Talarico distributed hot meals to people who had donated to help a local woman with cancer treatment costs. The Democratic Senate nominee later dismissed Paxton’s attempts to win over Hispanic voters by personally attacking him.
According to Talarico, Republicans are trying to divide people, “so we don’t notice that they’re picking our pockets, that they’re closing our public schools, that they’re gutting our health care, that they’re raising taxes on working people while they cut taxes for billionaires. It’s the oldest strategy in the world.”
Talarico’s campaign is intensifying its engagement with the Hispanic community, including initiatives like running a Spanish-language ad during the World Cup discussing his teaching background, plans to protect Medicaid and Social Security, and advocating for higher taxes on billionaires. He also aired an ad during the Mexico vs. Panama soccer match and launched a Spanish-language social media channel.
Local Democratic officials have started targeted efforts to mobilize Hispanic voters across the Rio Grande Valley. However, they face the challenge of encouraging Hispanics leaving the Republican Party to instead support Democrats and not abstain from voting in November.
Democrats are encouraged by increased primary turnout in the region, which in March more than doubled the number of primary voters compared to 2024. Trump won all four counties in the RGV that year, the first time a Republican has done so at the presidential level, but Democrats prevailed at every level down-ballot.
“We’re hoping to carry that momentum,” said Hidalgo County Democratic chair Richard Gonzales, referring to the high primary turnout. “Republicans beat us because they made it seem like they could solve the problems. They got in and then they just created more problems.”
