India’s Light Vehicle (LV) wholesale figures for April saw a 7% decrease from the previous month, dropping to 405k units. This decline was expected due to the seasonal trend following March. However, there was a positive note as there was a 5% year-on-year increase in sales.
The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment experienced a 9% dip in sales compared to the previous month, but showed a 5% year-on-year growth, reaching a total of 346k units. On the other hand, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) with a gross vehicle weight of up to 6T reported sales of 59k units, marking a 2% increase month-on-month and a 5% rise year-on-year.
The resurgence in the stock markets, fueled by a pause in the global tariff conflict, has boosted consumer confidence in the market. Additionally, the festivities of Chaitra Navratri, Akshaya Tritiya, Bengali New Year, Baisakhi, and Vishu, along with continued promotional efforts by automakers and dealerships, have contributed to the steady sales figures.
Retail sales of PVs and LCVs in April mirrored the seasonal pattern, declining by 2% month-on-month to 397k units. PV retail sales remained stable, impacted partially by inflationary pressures affecting discretionary income and a limited number of new model introductions. Conversely, LCV retail sales saw an 11% decrease due to a slowdown in e-commerce activity and increased competition from Electric Three-Wheelers.
With substantial PV inventory levels, reaching a 50-day supply at the end of April, according to FADA, there is a need for strategic planning to manage the stock effectively. From January to April, India’s LV wholesales recorded a 3% year-on-year improvement, totaling 1.7 million units, with 1.5 million PVs (+4% YoY) and 240k LCVs (-1% YoY).
Looking ahead to May, a strong agricultural cycle and favorable crop prices are expected to have a positive impact on the rural economy. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of India’s recent bond purchases are anticipated to inject excess liquidity into the banking system, potentially leading to reduced lending rates and improved affordability for auto loans.
Despite the favorable outlook, PV retail sales in May are forecasted to remain stable but subdued as consumers await new model launches and deal with high financing costs. Additionally, LCV sales may continue to be affected by the slowdown in e-commerce activity and increasing competition from Electric Three-Wheelers.
While minor adjustments have been made to the 2025 LV forecast, the projection for the year’s sales remains at 5 million units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase. The PV forecast has been slightly reduced to 4.3 million units, with a 3% year-on-year growth rate. The LCV forecast has been revised downward by 2%, mainly due to a moderated outlook for Mahindra.
Overall, the outlook for India’s LV sales remains positive, with expectations of reaching 6.8 million units by 2032, comprising 5.9 million PVs and 924k LCVs. This data provides insights into the current trends and future projections for the Indian automotive market.
