In a surprising twist in the ongoing saga of gerrymandering, Indiana Republicans have opted to reject a redistricting plan, marking a rare moment of restraint in the political battleground. This decision may pave the way for other state leaders, particularly in Democratic-leaning territories, to reconsider their own redistricting ambitions.
The fallout from Indiana’s decision gives some Democratic states a breather, even amid their party’s fervent debates on the issue. For months, lawmakers in Illinois and Maryland have been navigating internal discussions about potential map redraws. With Indiana’s Republicans choosing not to further gerrymander their districts, the pressure on their Democratic counterparts has diminished significantly.
Illinois Democrats have long maintained that they would only engage in gerrymandering if Indiana’s GOP capitulated to Trump’s demands and redrew their own maps. Following the recent developments in Indiana, it seems the Democrats in Illinois are no longer inclined to alter their course.
Meanwhile, in Maryland, a leading Democratic figure is pushing back against calls from party heavyweights to eliminate the state’s last remaining Republican seat. Bill Ferguson, the Democratic Senate President in Maryland, has been in contact with Indiana Senate Republican leader Rodric Bray. Both have resisted pressure from their respective party officials to move forward with redistricting. Bray’s spokesperson, Molly Swigart, clarified that no agreement was struck between Bray and Ferguson regarding redistricting.
In Virginia, where Democrats gained 13 seats in the House of Delegates during the recent elections, significant changes to congressional maps are on the table, potentially yielding four additional seats for the party. However, Democratic Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger has expressed hesitance about implementing sweeping changes to congressional boundaries.
Elsewhere, Trump and his allies are encountering challenges. In Kansas and Kentucky, Republican efforts to advance redistricting have stalled, primarily due to pushback from Democratic governors. In Ohio, a compromise has led to a less aggressive gerrymander than some national leaders desired. Meanwhile, a judge in Utah has drawn a map that creates a safe Democratic seat, and Republicans in Missouri are facing potential setbacks.
Despite Indiana’s decision, the gerrymandering wars are far from over. Lawmakers in various states are still contemplating their own redistricting plans, with Florida and Virginia remaining particularly uncertain. Additionally, Republicans are eyeing Kentucky and Nebraska for potential gerrymandering efforts.
“There are still numerous states where we can exert influence,” a source close to the White House, who wished to remain anonymous, remarked, acknowledging that “Indiana was definitely disappointing.”
Should the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling that further diminishes the Voting Rights Act in the near future, many states are expected to rush to redraw their maps ahead of filing deadlines, potentially giving the GOP a significant advantage and jeopardizing Democratic control of the House.
“The reality is that we are still entrenched in this redistricting conflict,” stated John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “We are all awaiting the Supreme Court’s forthcoming decisions and how they will shape our next steps.”
As we look ahead, here’s what to watch for in Maryland, Florida, Illinois, and the ongoing challenges to Missouri’s recently passed maps.
Maryland
Perhaps the lawmakers in Maryland are breathing the biggest sigh of relief after Indiana’s defiance of Trump’s redistricting ambitions. For months, Ferguson has faced mounting pressure from Democratic Maryland Governor Wes Moore and national party leaders to engage in the redistricting battle. The urgency of this campaign would have escalated had Indiana opted for a new map.
Rumors of Ferguson potentially losing his leadership position subsided this week after he was unanimously renominated as Senate leader. Shortly before Indiana’s Senate voted against its redistricting plan, Ferguson, along with Democratic House Delegates Speaker Pro Tem Dana Stein, announced that the upcoming special session called by Moore would not address any new maps.
While this likely closes the door on redistricting for the current year, Moore still has an opportunity to reignite efforts to persuade Ferguson to hold a vote in January when the legislature reconvenes. The governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission is meeting for its final public hearing to gather public input before making recommendations to the governor and the General Assembly about possible map redraws.
Illinois
For several months, Illinois Democrats have indicated they were unlikely to pursue additional seats from their already gerrymandered state unless Indiana Republicans changed their map.
Following the Indiana GOP’s recent vote, Illinois Democratic leaders remain noncommittal about redistricting but lack enthusiasm for a new map. “Our neighbors in Indiana have stood firm against Trump’s political pressure, choosing to act in the best interest of their constituents and democracy,” Illinois Governor JB Pritzker stated after the vote, while avoiding specific commitments regarding Illinois’s plans.
An anonymous source from Pritzker’s office suggested that the governor’s cautious tone stems from uncertainty regarding Trump’s next move.
Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate echoed similar sentiments, applauding their Indiana counterparts while pledging vigilance against similar maneuvers in other states.
Virginia
Virginia still holds Democrats’ best chance for a multi-seat gerrymander. However, while state leaders seem eager to pursue a complicated voter referendum to approve new district lines—akin to California’s approach—the state’s incoming Democratic governor does not appear as enthusiastic about the plan.
The Democratic-controlled Virginia legislature is expected to pass a procedural measure that would present redistricting to voters as a constitutional amendment ahead of the midterms, potentially leading to a 10-1 map. Virginia House Speaker Don Scott expressed confidence about the opportunity to reshape maps to create a more balanced playing field.
Nevertheless, Spanberger has been less decisive when asked about supporting redistricting. “The calendar is tight, and my focus is on winning,” she remarked, referencing Virginia’s congressional districts currently held by Republicans. “I believe we can flip those seats.” However, when pressed about redistricting, she suggested that Virginia should “keep options open” for new maps, ultimately leaving the decision to voters.
Florida
In Florida, Republicans have the potential to secure three to five additional seats through mid-decade redistricting, but two key factors complicate this endeavor.
First, GOP leaders are not aligned. Governor Ron DeSantis has been advocating for new maps since last summer but has also suggested waiting until spring 2024 for a potential Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which may influence how race is considered in drawing districts—a stance supported by the state’s GOP Senate president, Ben Albritton. Conversely, state GOP House Speaker Daniel Perez has deemed it “irresponsible” to delay, asserting that the House is ready to propose a new map during the upcoming regular session.
Second, GOP leaders must navigate Florida’s voter-approved constitutional prohibition against redistricting for partisan gain. Democrats have signaled their intent to challenge any new maps as “illegal,” indicating litigation is likely if such measures proceed. However, Florida’s conservative-dominated Supreme Court previously ruled in 2022 that minority protections could be overlooked, allowing a previous GOP-drawn map to be enacted under DeSantis’s influence.
Perez insisted that he is not facing pressure from Trump or the White House regarding redistricting. When asked if the outcome in Indiana added urgency to the House’s actions, he replied: “No, sir.”
Missouri
In Missouri, Republicans have already passed a map designed to flip Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Mo.) district from blue to red. However, Democrats are working to challenge this GOP-backed map through a ballot measure. Recently, they submitted over double the required 107,000 signatures to compel a statewide vote on the issue.
If the signatures are validated, the new map may not take effect in time for the midterms. If voters approve the measure, the GOP’s map will be revoked. Republicans still have time, as GOP Secretary of State Denny Hoskins does not need to approve the signatures until July. The timeline is causing confusion, as candidates must file by the end of March, potentially requiring them to register in districts that may not be finalized for the upcoming elections.
Contributions to this report were made by Adam Wren, Andrew Howard, Shia Kapos, Alex Gangitano, and Gary Fineout.
