High Stakes in Missouri: A Gerrymandering Duel
In a quiet yet fierce battle for political dominance, both Republicans and Democrats are funneling millions into the effort to challenge Missouri’s newly drawn congressional map, a strategic chess move in the broader contest for House control in the 2026 elections. The stakes are high, and both parties are keenly aware that even slight advantages can tip the scales.
Missouri stands out among six states that have recently redistricted their congressional boundaries, a trend ignited by former President Donald Trump’s push for Texas to redraw its lines. In September, the Republican-dominant legislature in Missouri approved a new map that effectively eliminates the Kansas City seat held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.
However, Democrats have a relatively clearer route to contest this new map, particularly ahead of next year’s midterms. They have initiated a campaign to repeal the map through a popular referendum, led by the group People Not Politicians. This effort has reportedly attracted an unprecedented influx of funds and legal challenges.
“Imagine the kind of democratic paralysis our state would be in if this happened every 10 years, or every time we decided to draw new maps,” mused Aaron Blake, a GOP strategist in Missouri. “That would just be chaos.”
Almost immediately following the map’s passage, Democrats mobilized to organize a campaign aimed at securing enough signatures to place the new congressional lines up for a vote. To do so, they need to collect approximately 107,000 valid signatures by December 11. Should they succeed, the implementation of the new map would be temporarily halted until voters have their say.
With both sides ramping up their efforts, organizations have flooded into Missouri, resulting in a complex web of court cases and tactics aimed at undermining the Democrats’ signature-gathering initiative.
Some Republicans harbor concerns that if the referendum appears on the ballot, voters might reject the Republicans’ push to maintain an edge in the House. “It will be a very uphill battle for Republicans if [the referendum] is on the ballot,” Blake acknowledged.
On the flip side, Missouri Democrats are optimistic about their chances, confident that they will gather sufficient signatures to force the issue to a vote. “They’re afraid for this to go on the ballot because they believe that Missourians will vote it down,” stated Doug Beck, the leading Democrat in the state Senate. “That’s why they’re trying as hard as they can to not let it go to the ballot.”
The Republican National Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee wasted no time, contributing a combined $100,000 shortly after the formation of the Put Missouri First PAC, which focuses on ballot measures. This was quickly followed by substantial donations, including two separate $1 million contributions from the Trump-aligned Securing American Greatness PAC and the American Action Network, the nonprofit wing of House Republicans’ primary super PAC.
While Democratic entities in Washington have largely stayed out of the signature-gathering campaign, dark money groups aligned with Democrats have contributed over $1.25 million to People Not Politicians, including a notable $500,000 from American Opportunity Action, a newly formed left-leaning nonprofit that is also active in Michigan against a constitutional rewrite.
Additionally, former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost a primary last year but is running for Congress again, donated $250,000 to the campaign, further highlighting the personal stakes involved.
This level of fundraising is remarkable for a ballot measure fight in Missouri, a state with a long history of referendums. Benjamin Singer, who has been involved in various referendum committees in Missouri since 2018, remarked that he has never observed such a financially intense ballot measure fight on both sides.
“They haven’t dominated with the big money because they haven’t needed to,” he noted.
However, the opposition has resorted to dubious tactics to disrupt the Democrats’ signature collection efforts. The Kansas City Star uncovered a contract offering a canvasser $5,000 to halt signature gathering, although the source of this contract remains unidentified and unverified by POLITICO.
Adding to the fray, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway has leveraged Trump’s stringent immigration policies to target a firm involved in signature collection, accusing it of employing “illegal aliens.” Hanaway’s office is now investigating Advanced Micro Targeting and has contacted ICE regarding their claims, which the firm has denied.
Hanaway is also challenging the potential referendum through legal channels, having filed a lawsuit that aims to declare the referendum unconstitutional based on the “independent state legislature” theory, which was largely dismissed in the Supreme Court’s Moore v. Harper case in 2023.
In her statement, Hanaway asserted, “Missouri will not allow out-of-state political groups to silence the voices of our citizens or override our state’s constitutional process. The Missouri Attorney General’s Office will defend the authority of Missouri’s elected representatives at every turn.”
Zachary Bluestone, a Trump-appointed judge overseeing the case, is expected to rule on whether the referendum will proceed ahead of the December 11 signature submission deadline.
This federal case is just one of at least seven lawsuits emerging from the redistricting controversy. The ACLU has also filed a state court case in partnership with People Not Politicians, contending that mid-decade redistricting violates the state constitution.
People Not Politicians has separately initiated a lawsuit against Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for his management of the referendum process, specifically objecting to the language he authored for the potential ballot measure, which characterizes the old maps as “gerrymandered” and the new lines as being “more compact” and reflective of statewide voting patterns.
“What’s going on in Missouri is an example of constitutional hardball,” commented Travis Crum, a professor at Washington University Law School specializing in election law.
Even if the referendum reaches voters, its passage is not guaranteed to block the new map for 2026. A myriad of redistricting-related court cases are scheduled for hearings and rulings likely to occur by the end of January, allowing state election officials sufficient time to organize a potential ballot measure election for the upcoming year, according to operatives and court observers.
“I just think the noise has peaked or will be peaking between now and mid-January,” Blake concluded, encapsulating the political turbulence that promises to unfold in Missouri.
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
