Copper prices have been on a bullish trend for years, with COMEX copper futures and LME forwards showing steady increases. In November 2025, COMEX copper futures were trading around $5 per pound, while LME forwards were above $10,850 per ton. The long-term trend for copper remains bullish, with the metal trading above $5 per pound.
The tariffs imposed in 2025 distorted the price differentials between COMEX copper futures and LME copper forwards. This led to a historical high in the arbitrage or differential between the two markets, as copper inventories shifted from LME to COMEX warehouses. By the end of 2025, LME copper stocks were at 271,400 tons, while COMEX inventories rose to 93,161 tons. However, by November 14, LME stocks had dropped nearly 50% to 135,725 tons, while COMEX inventories had risen by 309.3% to 381,296 metric tons.
The International Copper Study Group forecasted a 150,000 metric ton deficit in the global refined copper market for 2026, with demand exceeding supply. This shift was attributed to slowing production growth and increasing demand for copper, driven by its use in electric vehicles, electronics, and power generation. The deficit is expected to widen further as demand continues to rise, while establishing new copper mine supplies takes years.
Technically, the copper bull market that began nearly 25 years ago remains intact, with fundamental analysis supporting higher prices. While downside corrections are common in bull markets, buying copper on price dips has been optimal for investors. The most direct routes for a risk position in copper are through COMEX futures and LME forwards, which offer put and call option contracts.
The U.S. Copper ETF (CPER) holds COMEX copper futures contracts and has seen significant growth in assets under management. The recent rally in December COMEX copper futures saw CPER tracking the price movement closely. As copper prices continue to rise, long exposure through the CPER ETF during price corrections may offer investors an optimal strategy.
Overall, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trajectory, with technical and fundamental factors supporting higher highs in 2026. With copper futures setting a base around $5 per pound in November 2025, the trend towards higher prices is likely to continue.
