Trump’s Global MAGA Strategy Faces Political Headwinds in Europe
This week, prominent figures from Donald Trump’s inner circle ventured into a quaint town in southeastern Poland, eager to bolster support for the right-wing candidate in the upcoming presidential election. This spectacle laid bare MAGA’s ambitions beyond U.S. borders.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem lauded Karol Nawrocki as “a leader as strong as Trump,” urging his ascent to Poland’s presidency. Meanwhile, Matt Schlapp, chair of the pro-Trump Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), emphasized the global importance of electing leaders like Nawrocki for the liberty of people everywhere. John Eastman, who played a role in Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election, asserted that a Poland under Nawrocki would be pivotal in countering threats to Western civilization.
However, this conservative rally seemed to highlight the struggles faced by Trump’s allies in extending MAGA’s influence abroad. Recent electoral outcomes in Romania, Poland, and Canada indicate that Trump’s touch may not be the golden ticket many hoped for.
“Like at home, sometimes you take one step forward and two steps back,” remarked GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett, who served in Trump’s first administration. He added, “The allure of Trump and MAGA can sometimes overshadow the actual impact.”
Trump’s re-election in November energized far-right movements globally, fostering aspirations among his allies to install like-minded leaders and promote populist, hard-right agendas across the globe. This trend has seen conservative politicians in various countries aligning themselves, either directly or stylistically, with Trump.
In the months that followed, far-right factions performed admirably in European elections, including in Poland, Romania, and Portugal, surpassing expectations as electorates leaned right on immigration issues. Yet, despite this surge, they have not ascended to power in the anticipated manner.
“I wouldn’t say the right has ascended; it’s more of a mixed bag,” stated Kurt Volker, who was Trump’s envoy for Ukraine and ambassador to NATO under George W. Bush. “Yes, there’s an energy that far-right movements draw from each other, but there’s also an anti-Trump backlash that has led to some leaders benefiting from his criticisms.”
In Romania, hard-right candidate George Simion, who addressed CPAC in Washington and appeared on Steve Bannon’s podcast just before the election, faced defeat against a centrist challenger after leading in the initial voting round. Similarly, in Albania, conservatives recruited former Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita for a political boost, only to suffer a crushing loss.
The stakes are high for Poland’s election this Sunday, where Nawrocki, who recently visited the White House, is neck and neck with centrist candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, having trailed him in the initial round.
“There’s a sizable contingent of U.S. political figures camped out in Poland trying to sway the outcome,” said Randy Evans, former ambassador to Luxembourg under Trump. “Whether that will be effective remains to be seen; I suspect it will be a close race.”
Since Trump’s first term, his allies have aimed to amplify MAGA’s global presence. Bannon, who managed Trump’s 2016 campaign, has been on a European tour, promoting a far-right coalition dubbed “The Movement.” He even proposed establishing an academy to train future right-wing leaders at a former monastery in Rome.
Yet, those efforts have largely fizzled, as Bannon’s academy fell into protracted legal disputes, and support for far-right parties dipped significantly during the early pandemic months.
In the wake of rising inflation and immigration concerns, these parties have regained traction as the pandemic recedes. By the time Trump won the election last November, many were already experiencing a resurgence—his victory further emboldened them to align closely with the incoming U.S. administration.
When Vice President JD Vance criticized European leaders for catering to their voters’ fears at the Munich Security Conference, he presented the Trump administration as a model for a hard-right movement not just in the U.S. but across the West.
“Make Europe Great Again! MEGA, MEGA, MEGA,” proclaimed Elon Musk, Trump’s billionaire supporter, in a post on X earlier this year.
Since Vance’s speech, hardline conservatives have made some strides. In Portugal, the far-right Chega party has gained ground, while Reform UK, led by pro-Brexit figure Nigel Farage, achieved significant local election victories recently.
CPAC has been hosting international events since 2017, including gatherings in Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina. Following the recent Poland meeting, they convened supporters in Hungary.
Though Schlapp declined to comment, he told NPR, “What’s undeniable is that everyone is keen to know Donald Trump’s stance on the issues affecting their country,” adding that “there’s a palpable desire for Trump’s success.”
However, in other regions, MAGA-style politics has proved counterproductive. In both Canada and Australia, Trump’s erratic trade policies triggered an anti-Trump sentiment that hindered right-wing candidates trying to adopt his rhetoric.
Canada’s Pierre Poilievre and Australia’s Peter Dutton both sought to distance themselves from Trump in the final days of their campaigns, yet voters still punished them for their associations. Despite running on nationalist slogans, the unpopularity of Trump’s tariffs loomed large in the minds of voters.
Vance’s February speech suggested a burgeoning transatlantic right-wing alliance, yet the subsequent political reality has proven less drastic than some feared. “That’s not due to a lack of effort on their part,” noted Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “You can see the White House is actively engaging.”
Trump’s allies targeted the May 18 election in Romania following a previous vote annulled due to concerns over a Russian influence campaign on TikTok. MAGA supporters criticized the annulment and the barring of winning candidate Călin Georgescu from the new election.
MAGA loyalists spent considerable effort promoting Simion, who pledged to “Make Romania Great Again.” Just days before the election, Simion hosted CPAC’s Schlapp at a business roundtable in Bucharest, and Bannon featured him on his “War Room” podcast just before voters cast their ballots.
“George, you have the entire MAGA movement here in the U.S. rooting for you,” Bannon declared, confidently predicting Simion’s victory.
However, the voting results told a different story, with Simion losing by seven points to centrist candidate Nicușor Dan, who advocated for closer ties with the European Union and NATO.
In Albania’s May 11 parliamentary elections, where conservative candidate Sali Berisha engaged LaCivita to revitalize his party, the outcome was similarly disappointing. Despite presenting Trump and Berisha as kindred spirits facing persecution from the establishment, Berisha’s party suffered a significant defeat, allowing incumbent Edi Rama and his Socialist Party another term.
Rama seized the opportunity to mock the notion that hiring Trump’s campaign strategist would translate into success, quipping, “It’s like hiring a Hollywood hairdresser and expecting to become Brad Pitt.”
LaCivita suggested that the connection between MAGA in the U.S. and conservative movements abroad stems from shared concerns about judicial overreach against political opponents, rising living costs, and reduced personal freedoms. He remarked, “This alignment was revitalized with President Trump’s win in 2024, and while such success may not replicate globally, America is once again seen as a beacon of freedom—not through military might, but through political means.”
Trump spokesperson Anna Kelly asserted that Trump’s “message of restoring common sense, halting illegal immigration, and fostering peace resonates not just with Americans, but with people worldwide, leading to conservative victories across the globe.”
In contrast, Trump’s allies have largely brushed off recent international defeats, attributing them to a “deep state” conspiracy or claiming that losing candidates did not embody true Trumpism.
“MAGA’s populist, nationalist right continues to rise, despite the full force of the deep state opposing it,” Bannon remarked regarding recent electoral outcomes.
“These individuals aren’t Donald Trump; they’re mere facsimiles,” remarked Raheem Kassam, a former adviser to Farage and ex-Breitbart London editor. He noted that the parties of Simion and Nawrocki are rooted more in traditional conservatism than the MAGA-style populism seen in Germany, Austria, and France. “They’re cheap copies that have been run through a copy machine 40 times,” he noted. “It doesn’t work. It’s faded. It’s counterfeit Trumpism.”
Poland, where the right-wing Law and Justice Party has long fostered ties with Trump and MAGA advocates, will soon provide another test of whether alignment with Trump can propel like-minded candidates across the finish line.
Nawrocki, the Law and Justice Party’s presidential candidate, is fully committed to associating with Trump—evidenced by his recent trip to Washington for a photo opportunity at the White House.
“President Trump said, ‘you will win,’” Nawrocki told Polish broadcaster TV Republika. “I interpret this as a hopeful endorsement of my success in the upcoming elections, affirming that the American administration is aware of Poland’s situation.”
Nonetheless, recent polling indicates that Poles, once some of the most ardent supporters of the U.S. in Europe, are growing disenchanted with both the country and its current leadership, particularly in light of tariffs and Trump’s close ties to Russia—an especially sensitive topic given the historical context of Russian threats in the region.
A public poll conducted in April found that only 20 percent of Polish respondents believe the U.S. has a positive impact globally—the lowest since the survey began in 1987, a steep decline from 55 percent just a year prior. Moreover, 60 percent expressed concern over Trump’s presidency, compared to a mere 15 percent who felt hopeful.
“Trump is now the most unpopular U.S. president in Europe,” asserted Milan Nic, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “This means that for some of Nawrocki’s supporters, a photo with Trump no longer carries the same weight it once did.”
Volker, the former Ukraine envoy, advised that right-wing parties must carefully navigate their affiliation with MAGA, embracing its fervor without becoming too closely tied to the divisive figure of Trump. “Think of Trump as fire: getting too close can burn you, but being too distant renders you irrelevant,” he said.
