Morgan Stanley (MS) is making a significant investment in Microsoft (MSFT), positioning it among their top software recommendations.
Analyst Keith Weiss, part of a distinguished team, acknowledged that concerns over Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI, the expansion pace of Azure, and the sustainability of its productivity suite have negatively impacted market sentiment. However, data reveals that these fears appear to be unfounded.
Weiss has raised his price target to $625 from $582 while maintaining an Overweight rating for the stock. He argues that Microsoft’s combination of consistent double-digit growth, prudent spending, and robust shareholder returns presents an attractive total return profile that remains undervalued.
“Confidence in a strategy to alleviate these burdens and an expanding array of growth drivers elevate MSFT to a Top Pick,” Weiss mentioned in his analysis.
He argues that OpenAI’s substantial $300 billion deal with Oracle (ORCL) may impact Microsoft less than previously anticipated. This is attributed to the company’s strategic allocation of its limited GPU and data center resources towards higher-value enterprise clients.
Moreover, emerging trends in capital expenditures suggest that Azure’s AI revenue might surpass expectations, while survey feedback indicates that Microsoft’s productivity tools retain significant popularity.
Weiss contends that what may seem like a potential drawback is indicative of underlying strength, a notion that might increase confidence within the tech investment community.
Concerns regarding OpenAI have negatively affected Microsoft’s stock narrative over recent months. Investors have been hesitant, fearing that the partnership with OpenAI, including its extensive $300 billion agreement with Oracle, may hinder Azure’s growth trajectory.
However, Morgan Stanley believes that Microsoft’s strategic pursuits will not hinder the growth trajectory of Azure nor compromise its competitive positioning in AI-driven cloud services.
Weiss described the Oracle collaboration as a “incrementally positive development,” emphasizing that Microsoft is managing its limited GPU resources and “Powered Data Center Shells” in a way that prioritizes business customers. This strategy implies a more stable and sustainable revenue model in AI rather than dependence on a singular prominent partner.
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Morgan Stanley’s analysis also emphasized the significance of Microsoft’s capital investments as an indicator of Azure’s AI potential. Weiss concluded that Azure’s AI revenues might exceed current forecasts based on calculated capital expenditures committed to AI initiatives, illustrating that the cloud division is not slowing down; rather, it is broadening its growth opportunities.
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