New Jersey's long, expensive primary for governor is almost over. It already is for Republicans.

Polls Close in New Jersey’s Contentious Primary

The curtain has fallen on the polls in New Jersey’s crowded and fiercely contested gubernatorial primary, and the results are already shaking the political landscape. Jack Ciattarelli has swiftly secured the Republican nomination, making his victory official a mere 20 minutes after the polls closed.

On the Democratic front, a battalion of six candidates is vying to take the helm from the term-limited Phil Murphy. This election cycle is marked not only by intense personal attacks but also by an overarching influence of former President Donald Trump. It’s a historic race, boasting an eye-watering price tag exceeding $120 million over two years—a staggering sum reminiscent of a high-stakes poker game rather than a political campaign. Furthermore, this election is the first in decades devoid of a ballot design that traditionally favored party insiders.

The upcoming general election is poised to garner national attention, serving as a litmus test for Trump’s allure in a state that leans blue but where he unexpectedly lost by just six points last year. With Virginia as the only other state holding a gubernatorial election this year, November’s results in both states will likely provide insights into the political currents heading into the crucial midterm elections of 2026.

In New Jersey, the primary results will be scrutinized to assess the performance of traditional Democratic power structures absent the “county line”—a mechanism that has historically granted party leaders significant sway in candidate selection. This change follows a judicial ruling in 2024 that eliminated the line in the Democratic primary, alongside a new law mandating office block ballots for both parties, reminiscent of practices in other states.

Among the Democratic candidates, Rep. Mikie Sherrill has emerged as a frontrunner, though not without challenges. Despite the backing of several county leaders, her allies are not universal, and she has found herself under fire from opponents who accuse her of cozying up to the power brokers in the Democratic strongholds of North and Central Jersey. Sherrill has pivoted to present herself as the candidate best positioned for the general election, leveraging the final weeks of the primary to bolster Republican frontrunner Jack Ciattarelli’s ties to Trump while promoting her own legislative initiatives, such as a recent bill mandating drug tests for high-profile tech executives.

“MAGA is coming for New Jersey, with Trump-endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli. We’ve got to stop them,” declares a recent Sherrill advertisement, encapsulating the high-stakes drama of this election.

Facing off against Sherrill is Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, who has repositioned himself to her left, offering ambitious policy proposals while distancing himself from the political machines he once courted. His criticisms have been sharp, as he dubbed Sherrill “Tammy 2.0,” a reference to First Lady Tammy Murphy’s ill-fated Senate campaign that left a bitter taste among party loyalists, accusing her of avoiding risky positions.

Ras Baraka, Newark’s mayor, is also making a leftist appeal, garnering attention for his aggressive opposition to the Trump administration, which recently culminated in a widely publicized arrest during a protest at an ICE facility. However, despite the publicity, his fundraising efforts have been lackluster compared to his rivals.

Former Senate President Steve Sweeney and Rep. Josh Gottheimer are running more centrist campaigns, with Sweeney having supported the repeal of statewide policies limiting local law enforcement’s cooperation with immigration authorities, and Gottheimer advocating for a 15% property tax reduction.

Sean Spiller, former mayor of Montclair and current president of the New Jersey Education Association, has launched a progressive campaign powered by a super PAC funded with a massive $40 million from his union, making it the most expensive campaign effort among the candidates.

The sheer number of candidates and their substantial resources have contributed to an unpredictable primary season, the likes of which New Jersey hasn’t seen in years. This unpredictable nature is largely a byproduct of progressives successfully challenging the county line last year. It’s notable that this is only the second Democratic primary to forgo the county line (and the first for the Republicans), following a previous judicial intervention that preemptively resolved the 2024 U.S. Senate primary.

While Sherrill has consistently led in the limited public polls released thus far, her margins have rarely breached double digits. With six candidates vying for the nomination, it’s conceivable that a Democrat could clinch victory with as little as 20% of the vote.

The Republican primary, in contrast, has been a starkly different affair. Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea, who has made headlines for his anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and skepticism regarding the 2020 election results, have spent much of their time not only courting the state’s 1.6 million registered Republicans but also vying for Trump’s endorsement.

Ciattarelli, initially critical of Trump back in 2015—labeling him a “charlatan”—has since transformed his stance, culminating in a recent enthusiastic endorsement from the former president after an exuberant photo opportunity at Trump’s Bedminster golf club. Spadea attempted to downplay the significance of the endorsement, contending that Trump “endorsed a poll, not a plan.” Most political observers, however, interpreted this moment as the definitive end of the Republican primary race, as Spadea’s fundraising efforts have faltered, garnering only half of the matching funds he was entitled to from the state.

New Jersey’s off-year general election in November, alongside Virginia’s, will be closely monitored as a bellwether for the 2026 midterms. Despite Democrats enjoying an 800,000 voter advantage, New Jersey has a history of electing Republican governors. The GOP has also seen growth, gaining over 100,000 new voters recently, while Trump’s unexpectedly narrow defeat in the state in 2024 has emboldened Republican hopes for capturing the governorship.

The election cycle has witnessed an astonishing outpouring of over $120 million from candidates, state-funded matching funds, and, most prominently, super PAC contributions. As November approaches, the stakes will only escalate, with a less crowded field but heightened tension.