New Jersey Republicans are submitting their mail-in ballots at a higher rate than their Democratic counterparts, offering an early boost to GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli, as surveys indicate a narrowing contest with Rep. Mikie Sherrill in this crucial election.
As reported by Michael Pruser, the director of political science at DecisionDeskHQ, Garden State Republicans have achieved an 18.61% mail-in ballot return rate compared to the Democrats’ 16.55%.
According to the New Jersey Vote By Mail file as of 10/03, Republicans increased their return rate lead by six basis points yesterday, while Democrats added over 11,000 raw votes. 🔴Republican Return Rate – 18.61% — Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 3, 2025
🔵Democratic Return Rate – 16.55%
🔵DEM Raw Vote Edge – 53,319… pic.twitter.com/XSqYJgOwu5
GOP strategist Adam Geller, associated with the Ciattarelli campaign, remarked to The Post that historically, Republicans have been less likely to utilize mail-in voting, suggesting that this early lead is a positive indicator.
“This is definitely encouraging for Republicans,” Geller stated. “In addition to adapting to mail-in voting, it might reflect the enthusiasm surrounding the candidate.”
Brent Buchanan, president and CEO of the polling firm Cygnal, highlighted the significance of the early mail-in data amidst rising support for President Trump in the state.
“Republicans are becoming more serious about early voting,” Buchanan noted to The Post.
“With the strong statewide shift towards Trump, this could lead to increased Republican successes across the board.”
Kamala Harris narrowly won New Jersey by a 6% margin in the 2024 presidential election, the smallest Democratic victory margin in the state since 1992, according to the New Jersey Globe.
Moreover, President Trump is reported to be performing better in polls than current Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, as a recent Emerson College survey revealed.
Nevertheless, despite the enthusiasm from the GOP regarding mail-in ballots, analysts caution against overinterpreting preliminary data.
“The uncertainty of mail-in voting lies in the unpredictable nature of ballot returns. It’s unclear which counties may catch up with their submissions,” Geller warned.
Dave Wasserman, editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, also pointed out that it’s premature to predict the electorate’s composition.
“Democrats might issue their ballots later,” he suggested.
Wasserman further observed that the GOP appears “energized for change” after eight years under Democratic governance but emphasized that independent voters will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.
As per Pruser’s findings, independent voters exhibited a mail-in ballot return rate of only 9.32%.
In New Jersey, Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans, tallying 2,391,043 to 1,568,949, with 2,161,088 independents, according to data collected by the Independent Voter Project, which was last updated in late August.
Previously, Sherrill had maintained a strong lead throughout most of the race, with some polls showing almost a ten-point advantage.
However, shifts in the landscape began last month.
Internal polling by Geller indicated a slight lead for Ciattarelli, while Emerson College Polling reflected a tight contest between Sherrill and Ciattarelli.
Other polls corroborated that the race is tightening, causing alarm among national Democrats.
Currently, Sherrill holds a modest 3.3 percentage point lead over Ciattarelli, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate. A month prior, she was leading by 8.3 points.
For context, the RCP aggregate previously underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by approximately five points in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election, where he lost to incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D) by around three points.
Sherrill and Ciattarelli are due to face off in a debate on Wednesday, with New Jersey voters heading to the polls on November 4.
