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Today, the jobs report is unavailable due to the government shutdown.
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However, there are numerous indications that the labor market is facing challenges.
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There is a noticeable slowdown in hiring, and plans for layoffs are picking up speed, reaching the highest levels since 2020.
If you’re seeking to fill the gap left by the missing jobs report this morning, you’ve come to the right place.
The halt in government economic data reporting doesn’t mean new information isn’t available. Recent private sector reports present a concerning snapshot of labor market conditions.
Unfortunately, the overall outlook is grim.
Data released by ADP earlier this week revealed that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in September, falling significantly short of forecasts. Additionally, Thursday brought a wave of disappointing employment data that hinted at issues within the job market.
For market players, it’s a tightrope walk. Investors are looking for evidence that warrants additional rate cuts from the Fed, yet they hope the data does not suggest an imminent recession.
Here are the latest indicators from the labor market, unfiltered by government data:
In September, there were 17 million job openings, a decline of 17.2% from the previous year, according to workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs.
The number of active job postings, adjusted for seasonal trends, has reached its lowest point in at least three years, according to the firm.
The steepest drop in job openings occurred in the professional and business services sector, which saw a 31.4% year-over-year decline. This was followed by the government and “other services” sectors, each registering a 30.5% decrease year-over-year.
“Increased uncertainty is leading companies and investors to postpone new initiatives and reduce hiring, which is softening labor demand. The outlook suggests that fewer job postings point to even weaker job growth,” the report from Revelio noted.
According to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, employers have announced hiring plans for 204,939 workers thus far in the year, which is a significant reduction of 58% compared to the same timeframe last year.
This is the smallest number of planned hires for the first nine months of any year since 2009, according to the outplacement firm.
This downturn is primarily attributed to weak seasonal hiring trends. Challenger recorded just 100,800 seasonal hiring strategies last month, significantly lower than the 401,850 seasonal hires projected by this time last year.
“With decreased consumer confidence and looming tariff concerns, we anticipate a muted hiring season,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, regarding the retail sector, which typically contributes significantly to new employment during the holiday season.
