The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above-normal, with forecasters predicting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 of which may become hurricanes. These predictions are based on various climate factors, including sea surface temperatures and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water, so when the Atlantic is warmer than usual, it provides more fuel for storm formation. Additionally, ENSO phases like El Niño and La Niña can impact hurricane activity by either strengthening or weakening winds over the Atlantic.
As the 2025 hurricane season begins in a neutral phase, upper-level winds aren’t particularly hostile to hurricanes, but they’re not ideal either. Sea surface temperatures are running warmer than the 30-year average, indicating a moderately above-average hurricane season.
While seasonal forecasts provide a general outlook, shorter-term factors like dust from the Sahara Desert, African easterly waves, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can influence storm development in the coming weeks. These subseasonal signals help forecasters adjust their outlooks as the season progresses.
The Loop Current, a warm water current in the Gulf of Mexico, can also impact storm intensity when hurricanes pass over it. Its strength and location change throughout the season, affecting storm development.
Hurricane formation shifts as the season progresses, with the Gulf of Mexico being a hotspot for early-season storms in June and July. By August and September, storms originating near the Cape Verde Islands become more prevalent, with late-season storms forming in the western Atlantic or Caribbean.
Ultimately, coastal residents should remain vigilant throughout hurricane season, as it only takes one storm to make it a dangerous and unforgettable season. It’s essential to stay informed and prepared for any potential threats.
This article was written by Colin Zarzycki, an Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics at Penn State University, and was originally published on The Conversation website under a Creative Commons license.
