Unbeknownst to many, our bodies host numerous chemical biomarkers that can forecast our future health trajectories. These biomarkers are particularly valuable for medical researchers and clinicians, as they allow for the early detection of potential health risks. By identifying these risks before symptoms manifest, proactive measures can be taken to manage, research, or treat conditions, potentially even preventing their onset.
A recent extensive study by an international team has uncovered a new biomarker that can predict the risk of dementia in later life when assessed at middle age. This biomarker, known as GDF15, is a protein found in blood plasma. Data from six significant cohort studies indicate that individuals with elevated GDF15 levels in their blood, aged 55 or younger, are more likely to develop dementia in the future.
The researchers propose a rationale behind this finding.

The researchers, in their published paper, note: “Our results suggest plasma GDF15 may function as an early risk factor for dementia risk by modulating metabolic pathways and the neuroimmune axis.” This discovery builds on previous findings linking higher GDF15 blood levels to dementia in older age. The novelty lies in the association’s relevance for those under 55.
The study unfolded in several phases. Initially, data from six independent cohort studies, involving tens of thousands of participants from the US, UK, Iceland, and Japan, were analyzed. These studies included blood samples and health records spanning 15 to 25 years, revealing a correlation between elevated GDF15 levels and dementia risk.
The link was notably pronounced for vascular dementia, attributed to impaired brain blood flow. This was tentatively linked to GDF15’s role in inflammation.
frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share” referrerpolicy=”strict-origin-when-cross-origin” allowfullscreen>Subsequently, researchers utilized Mendelian Randomization (MR), using genetic patterns as proxies for elevated GDF15 levels. By analyzing genetic data from hundreds of thousands of individuals, they found that genetic variants linked to higher GDF15 also correlated with increased dementia risk.
This suggests that GDF15 is not merely an early marker of the disease but potentially a contributing factor, as these genetic influences are separate from lifestyle and environmental factors.
Further investigations involved smaller datasets where brain scans and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples were examined. There were connections between increased GDF15 in the blood, higher levels in the CSF, and brain shrinkage, though not with the amyloid beta protein clumps linked to Alzheimer’s disease.
The researchers commented, “We observed a strong correlation between plasma and CSF GDF15 levels, which is consistent with the possibility that circulating GDF15 crosses into the central nervous system.”
Finally, laboratory tests on immune cells revealed that GDF15 might disrupt normal pathways for immune response and energy management, possibly explaining its role in dementia development.
GDF15 plays a critical role in various cellular processes, particularly in regulating the immune system. While it can suppress cancer spread, researchers believe it might overly suppress the immune system concerning dementia, leaving the brain exposed.
Related: A Single Lifestyle Change Could Lower Your Risk of Dementia by 16%
Looking ahead, GDF15 might serve both as an early indicator of increased dementia risk and as a tool to understand its progression better.
The researchers conclude, “These findings support circulating GDF15’s role as an early biomarker – particularly for vascular dementia and neuroinflammation – and identify the mechanisms by which it may drive dementia risk.”
The study can be found in Science Advances.

