Paxton's challenge isn't the only one worrying Senate Republicans

Ken Paxton’s Senate Bid Poses Challenges for Texas Republicans

Ken Paxton’s recent announcement to run for the U.S. Senate in Texas has set off a chain reaction of concern within the Republican Party. Top GOP senators had been quietly strategizing to sideline the Texas attorney general well before his primary campaign launch against the seasoned four-term incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn. As soon as Paxton entered the race, some party members were quick to urge former President Donald Trump to throw his weight behind Cornyn, who boasts a robust donor network and a history of leadership in the Senate.

“Ideally, keeping Paxton out of the race would have been the best option,” remarked Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a close ally of Trump. He suggested that if the president were to seek his advice, Cramer would recommend doing “whatever helps John.”

Interestingly, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has opted for neutrality in the Cornyn-Paxton showdown. Meanwhile, two members from the Texas delegation have already pledged their support to the challenger, highlighting the divisions within the party.

However, Paxton is merely the tip of the iceberg regarding the GOP’s primary dilemmas. Republicans are increasingly anxious about the potential for Trump to elevate more MAGA-aligned challengers in various states, which could trigger fiercely contested primaries. Senate leaders are already on high alert, especially in North Carolina, where they aim to shield Sen. Thom Tillis from a Trump-backed primary threat. Similarly, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump during the 2021 impeachment trial, is now facing opposition from the right.

Despite their apprehensions, Republicans cling to the hope that Trump will help them navigate these intraparty challenges without significant fallout. However, they are acutely aware that a single remark from Trump could upend their carefully laid plans.

Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, indicated he is collaborating with Trump to align their strategies for protecting incumbents. He reaffirmed his backing for Cornyn after Paxton’s entry into what is anticipated to be one of the most expensive primary battles of the cycle, describing Cornyn as “a leader who delivers on President Trump’s agenda” and an “essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”

This behind-the-scenes maneuvering to coax Trump into endorsing Cornyn reveals a sobering reality for the GOP: they desperately need Trump’s influence yet find themselves unable to control him.

The Senate landscape in 2026 appears favorable for Republicans, yet they remain wary of a recurring issue: untested candidates winning primaries only to hinder the party in general elections or drain resources in what should be secure seats. The 2022 midterms serve as a cautionary tale, with Trump-endorsed candidates like Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters, and Herschel Walker losing crucial contests.

Last cycle’s NRSC chair, Sen. Steve Daines, took extensive measures to chart a different course by closely collaborating with Trump to select candidates with better chances in the general election, a strategy that successfully helped Republicans regain the Senate majority. However, the current environment is more defensive, with incumbents now facing new right-wing challenges.

“Primaries are always serious business,” Daines stated. “What we aimed for at the NRSC last time was to minimize that risk. Yet, there’s always concern for colleagues facing primary challenges.”

Trump, according to Daines, is keeping “a close eye” on Senate races. Senate Republicans are not alone in their attempts to coax Trump into supporting incumbents in their primaries; however, these efforts sometimes backfire. Paxton reportedly advanced his primary campaign sooner than anticipated upon learning that Senate Majority Leader John Thune was lobbying for Trump’s endorsement of Cornyn. This revelation came from a source close to Paxton who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

While Cornyn has publicly aligned himself with Trump during the early months of his second term and highlighted his past collaboration with Trump during a failed bid for majority leader, Paxton has signaled his intent to run a campaign that portrays Cornyn as inadequately loyal to the former president.

Responses from Trump’s aides and the Republican National Committee regarding these developments were not immediately available.

In North Carolina, Tillis is already facing primary challengers, including the potential candidacy of Michele Morrow, an outspoken candidate who previously ran unsuccessfully for state superintendent of public education. Additionally, Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, has been floated as a possible challenger, although she recently joined Fox News Channel.

Tillis, when questioned about discussions with Trump or his team regarding an endorsement, remarked, “It’s too early for those sorts of conversations.”

Meanwhile, Cassidy faces uncertainty regarding his standing with Trump. Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming has already announced his candidacy against Cassidy, with more challengers likely to emerge. Although Cassidy has aligned himself with Trump on significant GOP initiatives this year, including a crucial vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead Trump’s Health and Human Services Department, some Senate Republicans harbor doubts about whether that will be enough to win Trump’s favor.

Cramer, a Trump confidant, expressed skepticism about Cassidy’s prospects: “Impeachment is a tough one.”

Another Trump ally, speaking on the condition of anonymity, predicted that the president would “not remain neutral” in Cassidy’s primary, if not actively oppose him. The usually affable Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) declined to comment on whether he planned to engage Trump regarding Cassidy’s race.

When asked about the possibility of facing a Trump-backed challenger, Cassidy dismissed the notion as “a silly question,” asserting, “I’m not worried about that.”

In terms of electoral strategy, Cassidy’s situation is distinctive: his seat in Louisiana is not expected to be competitive in the general election, meaning the party’s overall fate does not hinge on his success in the primary.

Complicating Cassidy’s bid to retain his seat is Louisiana’s recent abolition of its unique primary system for congressional elections, which previously advanced the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party affiliation (unless a candidate received over 50 percent of the vote). This change requires Cassidy to appeal to a more conservative and Trump-aligned voter base to secure a spot in the general election.

Should Trump target Cassidy, it would signify a public rift between the former president and Thune, as well as the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, which is committed to supporting incumbent senators. Any resources diverted from the Republicans during the primary could detract from funding available for competitive general election races.

When asked whether he was having similar discussions regarding Cassidy as he was for Cornyn, Thune stated that Republicans are tackling the races “one at a time.”

“We’re clearly invested in helping our incumbents,” Thune affirmed, adding that he is collaborating with the White House and the Senate GOP campaign arm to ensure they are positioned optimally for the midterm elections with both incumbents and challengers.