Many Democrats are considering sacrificing Black voting power to defeat the GOP.
Following a recent Supreme Court decision that limited a key aspect of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans have initiated a new wave of redistricting in the South. Their goal is to dismantle majority-minority districts, which they claim are unconstitutional, to maintain control of the House.
Results from The POLITICO Poll indicate that a significant number of Democrats want their leaders to aggressively counter these efforts, even if it involves breaking up districts that protect the influence of Black and other minority voters.
Ideally, Democrats wish to preserve these districts. Without considering the Supreme Court’s decision, 54 percent of voters for Kamala Harris in 2024 believe it’s more crucial to protect minority voting power, even at the cost of fewer Democratic seats.
However, when factoring in the Supreme Court ruling and Republican gerrymandering, 45 percent believe Democrats should oppose GOP strategies, “even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts.”
Collectively, the poll reveals that Republicans’ assertive redistricting is challenging Democrats to adopt a strong stance, with many seemingly willing to prioritize winning the House over traditional principles like enhancing minority electoral influence.
“Do I think you should do all of these carve outs? No. But do I think what we’ve just witnessed should have happened? No. Do I think that the Supreme Court should have come down with Callais? No,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.). “At some point you do have to stop and say, ‘This is madness, and all this is doing is unraveling democracy.’”
Kamlager-Dove suggested that discussions among Democrats “probably will have to” involve altering majority-minority districts. “It’s existential at this point, and this is a larger battle that we’re fighting for.”
This admission from a Black lawmaker representing a majority-Hispanic district in Los Angeles underscores that defeating Republicans might outweigh protecting similar districts.
There is a possibility that Democrats might need to employ this strategy to counteract aggressive Republican gerrymandering. To secure favorable margins in states like Illinois and New York, district lines might need to be redrawn to concentrate Black voters in Republican-leaning areas to make them more Democratic.
It’s not just a few Democrats reconsidering their stance. Among Harris voters who initially wanted to protect majority-minority districts, opinions are split: 46 percent prioritize drawing more Democratic seats, while 41 percent want to maintain the districts.
The survey by Public First highlights a new dimension in the gerrymandering conflict spreading nationwide. At least nine states will implement new maps this fall, with more considering gerrymandering before future elections. Mapmaking is becoming a priority for both parties leading up to 2028.
The poll indicates that people of color might be more open to having fewer majority-minority districts if it leads to defeating Republicans, although there are higher margins of error due to smaller sample sizes.
Pluralities of Black (42 percent), Hispanic (45 percent), and Asian American (48 percent) voters, who are Democrats or Harris voters, believe drawing more Democratic seats is more important, even if it reduces majority-minority districts. White Democrats and Harris voters are slightly less supportive, with 39 percent in favor, 33 percent opposed, and 28 percent uncertain.
Some Democratic leaders challenge the notion that creating beneficial maps and maintaining majority-minority districts are mutually exclusive.
“As the person that draws the maps and stares at the data, I’m telling you that is not a binary choice,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
California Assemblymember Mia Bonta, a Democrat who is also a Black Latina, emphasized that the Democratic Party’s success often relies on Black voters. In pushing for more assertive gerrymandering, she stressed the importance of keeping Black voters central to the process.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is urging colleagues to redraw maps before 2028, citing California and Virginia as examples of maintaining Black representation without dilution.
Meanwhile, Republicans are keen to highlight Democratic disagreements on mapmaking as they continue efforts to draw advantageous House districts to bolster their narrow majority.
“Those numbers seem to suggest there’s not a unified position on the path forward for Democrats on this issue,” said Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. “I think it shows a split in their coalition, and they’re going to need to have everybody on board in order to be successful in repealing or changing these redistricting commissions over the next couple years.”
POLITICO’s Calen Razor and Lindsey Holden contributed to this report.
