Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top contender for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, with his probability of being appointed crossing above 50% on prediction market Kalshi. This surge in Waller’s chances comes after reports from Bloomberg News indicated that President Donald Trump’s advisors are impressed with Waller’s willingness to adjust monetary policy based on forecasting rather than relying solely on current data. While Waller has met with Trump’s team regarding the Fed chief role, he has not yet met with the president himself.
Waller’s odds on Kalshi have surpassed those of previous front-runners, former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, whose probabilities stand at 20% and 35%, respectively.
Trump nominated Waller to the Federal Reserve in 2020, and in the most recent Fed decision in July, Waller, along with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, publicly dissented with the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current levels. Waller expressed his belief that the Fed’s cautious approach is overly prudent.
Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, highlighted Waller’s recent dovish stance and political independence credibility, making him an ideal choice for investors. Hassett and Warsh have both advocated for lower interest rates, while current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, has faced criticism from Trump for keeping rates elevated.
On Polymarket, another popular prediction platform, Waller is also leading as the front-runner, with his chances rising to 35%. Hassett follows with a probability of 22%, while Warsh is currently at 11% on Polymarket. Notably, 31% of participants on the platform wagered that no announcement regarding the Fed chairmanship will be made by December.
During a recent CNBC interview, Trump mentioned that he had four candidates in mind for the top position, but he seemed to favor both Warsh and Hassett. Trump praised Warsh, stating that he believes he is a very good candidate. These comments led to increased odds for both Hassett and Warsh on Kalshi.
Overall, Waller’s increasing chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve chairman highlight the shifting dynamics within the Federal Reserve and the anticipation surrounding Trump’s decision on the matter. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring these developments as they await further clarity on the future direction of monetary policy in the United States.
