Progress for Ukraine talks in Paris uncertain with focus shifting to Venezuela : NPR

PARIS — Ukraine’s allies are meeting Tuesday in Paris for key talks that could help determine the country’s security after a potential ceasefire with Russia. But prospects for progress are uncertain with the Trump administration’s focus shifting to Venezuela.

Before the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, French President Emmanuel Macron had expressed optimism about the latest gathering of so-called “coalition of the willing” nations. For months, they have been exploring how to deter any future Russian aggression should it agree to stop fighting Ukraine.

In a Dec. 31 address, Macron said that allies would “make concrete commitments” at the summit “to protect Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace.”

Macron’s office said Tuesday’s meeting will gather an unprecedented number of officials attending in person, with 35 participants including 27 heads of state and government. The U.S. will be represented by President Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Macron’s office said the U.S. delegation was initially set to be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who changed his plans for reasons related to the military intervention in Venezuela.

Participants seek concrete outcomes on five key priorities once fighting ends: ways to monitor a ceasefire; support for Ukraine’s armed forces; deployment of a multinational force on land, at sea and in the air; commitments in case there’s another Russian aggression; and long-term defense cooperation with Ukraine.

But whether that’s still achievable Tuesday isn’t so clear now, as Trump deals with the aftermath of his decision to effect leadership change in Venezuela.

Ukraine seeks firm guarantees from Washington of military and other support seen as crucial to securing similar commitments from other allies. Kyiv has been wary of any ceasefire that it fears could provide time for Russia to regroup and attack again.

Recent progress in talks

Before the U.S. military operation targeting Maduro, Witkoff had indicated progress in talks about protecting and reassuring Ukraine.

In a Dec. 31 post, Witkoff tweeted that “productive” discussions with him, Rubio, and Kushner on the U.S. side and, on the other, national security advisers of Britain, France, Germany and Ukraine had focused on “strengthening security guarantees and developing effective deconfliction mechanisms to help end the war and ensure it does not restart.”

France, which with the United Kingdom has coordinated the monthslong, multination effort to shore up a ceasefire, has only given broad-brush details about the plan’s scope. It says Ukraine’s first line of defense against a Russian resumption of war would be the Ukrainian military and that the coalition intends to strengthen it with training, weaponry and other support.

Macron has also spoken of European forces potentially being deployed away from Ukraine’s front lines to help deter future Russian aggression.

Important details unfinalized

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during the weekend that potential European troop deployments still face hurdles, important details remain unfinalized, and “not everyone is ready” to commit forces.

He noted that many countries would need approval from parliament even if leaders agreed to military support for Ukraine. But he recognized that support could come in forms other than troops, such as “through weapons, technologies and intelligence.”

Zelenskyy said that post-ceasefire deployments in Ukraine by Britain and France, Western Europe’s only nuclear-armed nations, would be “essential” because some other coalition members “cannot provide military assistance in the form of troops, but they do provide support through sanctions, financial assistance, humanitarian aid and so on.”

“Speaking frankly as president, even the very existence of the coalition depends on whether certain countries are ready to step up their presence,” Zelenskyy said. “If they are not ready at all, then it is not really a ‘coalition of the willing.’