Progressives did not experience the sweeping victory they anticipated, while moderates are celebrating a stronger-than-expected performance.
As Wednesday morning unfolded, Michigan’s key Democratic Senate primary remained undecided, leaving a significant question unanswered: Can the Democratic Party’s progressive wing compete and succeed in a pivotal battleground state?
The tight race between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens has set the stage for ongoing debates within the Democratic Party, regardless of the eventual outcome.
Internal disagreements have already begun to surface.
“These guys are unbelievably cocky,” remarked a Democratic operative, who spoke anonymously. The comment was made in frustration over El-Sayed’s attendance at a pool party with progressive streamer Hasan Piker on Monday, just before the polls opened.
El-Sayed had a three-point lead when both candidates spoke to their supporters around 1 a.m. on Wednesday, with many votes still uncounted. He performed best in affluent and well-educated areas, whereas Stevens had more success in regions with lower incomes and educational attainment.
Yet, this narrow lead fell short of El-Sayed and his campaign’s expectations.
Late-stage public polling indicated El-Sayed was leading Stevens by a significant margin. His campaign was confident of a decisive win that would solidify the progressive movement’s strength in Michigan, a state crucial to the Democratic Party’s Senate and future presidential hopes.
However, the expected progressive surge did not occur on Tuesday night, prompting renewed questions about the movement’s influence. While progressives have secured victories in various districts from California to Maine, Michigan was perceived as their most significant challenge yet.
Democratic strategist Tré Easton noted on social media, “The Democratic Party is a coalition that spans everything from center to socialist. Each part needs the other.”
El-Sayed has maintained a slight lead post-election and could still secure a victory for his progressive base and move on to the general election. However, instead of celebrating, he is emerging from a closer-than-expected primary contest.
Beyond this Senate race, results were varied: Progressive Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence won his primary in Michigan’s 7th District, largely due to vote splitting among moderate candidates. Meanwhile, Democratic socialist Donavan McKinney remains in a tight contest with Rep. Shri Thanedar for Michigan’s 13th District, and in Missouri, Cori Bush’s attempt at a comeback was unsuccessful.
A national Democratic operative, speaking anonymously, commented, “If [El-Sayed] wins, the DSA brand beyond major urban areas is not popular,” especially considering Cori Bush’s defeat.
Stevens, meanwhile, conveyed optimism to her supporters Wednesday morning, stating, “I’m feeling good about this race.”
El-Sayed, despite his narrow lead, framed it as a triumph over substantial spending by pro-Stevens groups. Earlier on Tuesday, he had confidently predicted he would defeat Rogers by seven percentage points in the general election.
At his election night gathering in Detroit, El-Sayed told supporters, “I wish I could tell you that I was declaring victory right about now. Turns out it takes a long time to count some votes in Michigan.”
For some of El-Sayed’s allies, a win remains significant, even if closely contested. Bhaskar Sunkara, a 2020 Bernie Sanders surrogate, remarked, “Any win is good, as long as it’s called tonight.”
Regardless of who wins, the close race means the victor must work hard to unite the party following a bitter primary filled with personal attacks. This was acknowledged by both candidates in their speeches to supporters.
El-Sayed urged his supporters, “To all of our supporters here tonight, watching on TV, tomorrow we begin to mend fences. If your instinct is to be like, ‘I told you.’ Nope. Let’s come together to build a movement that’s even bigger, that’s even stronger, that’s even more powerful, that reaches into the very depths of this state, that reminds us the best of who we are and who we can be.”
Democrats statewide are already concentrating on rallying their fractured party for another likely challenging general election.
Chris Herweyer, an organizing director for the Kent County Democratic Party, stated, “It’s no secret that this has at once been a contentious and bruising primary, but Democrats through it all have shown resilience towards coming together following primaries.”
Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who had been a Senate candidate before suspending her campaign a month prior to the primary, endorsed El-Sayed early Wednesday as he maintained a slim lead over Rep. Haley Stevens, indicating quick efforts to reconcile even as the race was still undecided.
Meanwhile, Republicans remain hopeful for an El-Sayed victory. Rogers’ primary was a positive development for Republicans on the Senate map, allowing the party to avoid a costly and contentious primary and focus on the general election.
Jason Roe, a Republican operative in Michigan, commented via text, “El-Sayed is the preferred candidate” for Republicans. “El-Sayed is not doing very well outstate and I think that’s what a lot of Republicans are banking on. It will be very difficult for him to beat Rogers with those rural counties.”
Andrew Howard and Will Steakin contributed to this report.
