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Reform UK has achieved a significant victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, edging out Labour by just six votes and bolstering Nigel Farage’s push to establish his right-wing populist party as a major player in British politics.
Sarah Pochin emerged victorious in the Cheshire seat after a recount, overturning a nearly 15,000-vote Labour majority to become Reform’s fifth member of parliament. The by-election in a traditionally Labour stronghold stood out among a plethora of mayoral races and council elections that occurred on Thursday.
In addition to Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are also anticipated to make gains, underscoring a changing landscape in British politics where the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives is being challenged.
Nigel Farage expressed his delight at the win but emphasized the importance of not only focusing on victories. He highlighted the collapse of Labour’s vote in their heartland, with a significant portion of it shifting to Reform, signaling a shift in political dynamics.
The defeat in Runcorn comes as a wake-up call for Labour, which has seen a decline in popularity since its landslide victory last July. The by-election was triggered by the conviction of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury.
Reform candidate Pochin campaigned on an anti-immigration platform, targeting a local asylum hotel and capitalizing on local discontent over government welfare cuts. Labour, on the other hand, championed the government’s additional funding for the NHS and employment reforms, while also appealing to former Green and Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically against Reform.
Early results in mayoral races also indicated a significant swing towards Reform. In Greater Lincolnshire, former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns secured victory with 42% of the vote, marking Reform’s first mayoral win. Reform also came close to challenging Labour in North Tyneside and Doncaster.
Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform, described the early results as “very, very encouraging,” suggesting a seismic shift in voting patterns. He noted that Reform had taken more seats from Labour than from the Conservatives, emphasizing the party’s appeal in Labour heartlands.
Labour party chair Ellie Reeves acknowledged the challenges posed by the elections, stating that the party is eager for change. Reform currently leads in opinion polls, with an average of 26%, surpassing Labour’s 24% and the Conservatives’ 21%.
Labour strategists are concerned that Reform could make significant inroads in their former strongholds in northern England and the Midlands in the next general election. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s absence from the constituency ahead of polling day reflected low expectations for the by-election.
Expected results later on Friday are likely to be unfavorable for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, with the party projected to lose hundreds of council seats. The Tories face competition from Reform and the center-left Lib Dems, who aim for gains in southern councils.
The English councils’ contest, last held during a period of heightened popularity for former Prime Minister Boris Johnson due to a “vaccine bounce” during the Covid-19 pandemic, poses a challenge for the Conservatives. Shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake anticipates a tough night for the party, with potentially significant losses.
As the political landscape in Britain continues to evolve, the results of the by-election and council elections signal a shift in traditional party dominance, with Reform emerging as a significant player to watch in the coming years.
