Texas Primary: A High-Stakes Duel for the Senate
As the Texas primary approaches, the Republican Party finds itself in a state of increasing disarray, with fears mounting that their fierce internal battle could jeopardize a critical Senate seat. The stakes couldn’t be higher as Sen. John Cornyn braces for a potentially costly and contentious 10-week runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who seems to have gained significant traction despite the national GOP’s attempts to undermine him.
“If you analyze the polling in a general election context, it’s not far-fetched to think the seat could flip, depending on the Democratic nominee,” remarked Senate Majority Leader John Thune, expressing concern over the implications of a Cornyn loss in the primary.
Should Cornyn falter, Senate Republicans fear they may have to redirect hundreds of millions of dollars—funds that could support crucial battleground races in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Michigan—complicating their strategy to maintain control of the Senate.
To date, Republicans have poured nearly $100 million into TV advertisements for the primary, which also features Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), according to AdImpact data. Cornyn has even launched new ads, backed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, attacking Paxton by bringing up his tumultuous divorce and allegations of corruption, labeling him a “wife-cheater and fraud.” However, these tactics have yet to slow Paxton, a MAGA darling who resonates deeply with the party’s base and enjoys a surge of grassroots support.
“All indications suggest that Paxton will likely finish first,” a GOP operative close to Cornyn told POLITICO on the condition of anonymity. “We’re just hoping the narrative isn’t ‘Paxton decisively defeated Cornyn.’”
Paxton even attended the recent State of the Union address as a guest of Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), who dismissed concerns about a costly general election as mere “scare tactics.” Nehls asserted, “What you’re telling Texans is that they can’t elect Ken Paxton, not because I’m better, but because it’ll cost too much. What a desperate ploy to sway voters!”
Confidently, Paxton predicts a sweeping victory, suggesting after a campaign rally in the Houston suburbs that he might win the race outright, thereby avoiding a runoff altogether.
Both Paxton and Cornyn’s camps have also targeted Hunt with ads recently, signaling that they may view him as a potential threat to Cornyn’s runoff bid—or as an obstacle to Paxton’s outright victory.
Should the race extend to the end of May, Paxton has indicated he will maintain his grassroots approach. “We’ll be out there competing, just like always. Cornyn has lots of D.C. money, but we’ll rely on our support from Texas,” he stated.
A spokesperson for Hunt claimed that the congressman warned NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott last year about Cornyn’s potential loss, but “Washington ignored it.” They expressed concerns that Paxton could be vulnerable in the general election.
“If Senate Republicans lose the majority, it will be because the NRSC failed to plan ahead and chose to meddle in a Republican primary in Texas—where the GOP nominee usually has the upper hand,” the spokesperson argued. “That’s a case of political malpractice.”
Republican officials and Senate leaders believe Cornyn stands a far better chance against a Democratic challenger in the general election than Paxton does. When approached for comment, the NRSC shared a memo with donors indicating that “John Cornyn is the only Republican candidate who consistently wins a general election matchup,” while warning that “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”
“We need to be prepared for significant spending in this race, which changes the game entirely if Cornyn is the nominee,” Thune cautioned. “He is, without a doubt, the best candidate for not just the Senate, but also for down-ballot races that could be influenced by the Senate race.”
The polling supports this assertion. The NRSC released data showing Cornyn leading state Rep. James Talarico by 3 points and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) by 7 points in general election matchups. In contrast, Paxton trails Talarico by 3 points and leads Crockett by a mere 1 point, with nonpartisan public polls echoing these findings.
It’s worth noting that no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), who has not endorsed a candidate, expressed hope that the Republican primary avoids a runoff. “We must keep Texas red,” she asserted. “Getting someone in place quickly is vital for all Texans.”
During a recent Fox News appearance, Cornyn predicted he would face Paxton in a runoff and warned that a Paxton win could boost Democratic chances in November. “The attorney general carries so much baggage that he could jeopardize our chances of retaining this seat,” Cornyn cautioned. “I believe I can help President Trump during his second term by not just winning this race, but also aiding in the election of congressmen running in newly created districts. Paxton threatens all of that.”
Despite minimal campaigning and spending a fraction compared to Cornyn, Paxton has consistently led or tied with Cornyn in nearly every primary poll since launching his campaign last April. This reflects his strong standing as a bold MAGA figure in Texas, a reputation cultivated over a decade as the state’s top lawyer, where he’s leveraged his position to engage in culture wars, such as suing to overturn the 2020 election results and defending Texas’s stringent abortion ban.
Dave Carney, an advisor to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, predicts a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, suggesting that Paxton may hold the upper hand. “The most conservative candidate usually prevails, as they often have the most motivated supporters in low-turnout primary runoff elections,” Carney noted.
To date, Trump has refrained from endorsing any candidate in the primary. “I’m friendly with all of them,” he remarked earlier this month. “I like all of them, all three.”
For months, Thune and other Senate Republicans have privately lobbied for Trump to endorse Cornyn, believing he would be the most formidable candidate in the general election. Thune has carefully avoided making predictions about Trump’s future actions, noting that some of Trump’s top political aides are supporting Cornyn’s campaign. However, skepticism remains regarding whether Trump would endorse Cornyn if the senator finishes second heading into the runoff.
Trump is scheduled to appear in Corpus Christi on Friday for a speech on the economy, although a White House aide indicated that no endorsements would be made at the event. The White House has not announced whether any GOP Senate candidates will accompany Trump during his visit.
Concerns among top GOP donors are growing, with fears that the party is squandering resources while Paxton retains a significant advantage despite the substantial spending against him. Some donors express apprehension that Cornyn may not even make it to a runoff. “It’s going down to the wire,” lamented one donor, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the race.
Lisa Kashinsky contributed reporting.
