Stocks surged in the final days of August, as traders prepared for what is historically considered the worst month for equities. Despite the volatility seen in global markets just a few weeks ago, the S&P 500 closed near its all-time highs. In the last 10 minutes of trading on Wall Street, equities saw a significant spike, with the S&P 500 rising by 1% and all major groups showing gains. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the index, supported by data indicating a resilient economy and the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September. The upcoming jobs report next week is expected to provide further insight into the Fed’s decision-making.
Mark Hackett from Nationwide noted that sentiment has calmed down significantly compared to the beginning of August. While September historically has been a challenging month for stocks, Hackett believes that if investors can navigate through potential obstacles, they can turn challenges into advantages in the fourth quarter.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average loss of 0.7% in September, with positive finishes only 43% of the time. Recent Septembers have been particularly weak, with the index posting declines of 4.9%, 9.3%, 4.8%, and 3.9% over the last four years. The midpoint of September is closely aligned with the Fed meeting, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding potential rate cuts.
As the S&P 500 approached 5,650 before the US holiday, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 also saw gains. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. announced plans to lay off several hundred employees as part of its annual performance review process. Dell Technologies Inc. experienced a rally following strong financial results.
The VIX, known as the “fear gauge,” dropped to 15 after reaching unprecedented levels above 65 during the market selloff earlier in August. Options traders purchased call spreads on the VIX to protect against increased volatility in the S&P 500.
Treasury 10-year yields rose by five basis points to 3.91%, while the dollar strengthened after a challenging month. Oil prices experienced a decline, contributing to market uncertainties.
September has historically been a challenging month for stocks due to various factors, including investors reassessing portfolios, companies preparing for the upcoming year, and mutual funds engaging in window dressing. Additionally, blackout periods for share repurchases can impact companies’ ability to support their share prices.
Looking ahead, traders are hopeful for positive economic data that could support the market rally and broaden beyond the tech sector. The upcoming US jobs report will be crucial in determining the economy’s health and potential Fed rate cuts.
Overall, September poses challenges for investors, but with careful navigation and a focus on economic data, opportunities for growth in the fourth quarter may emerge.
