The Green Party has experienced a notable increase in support according to a recent poll, almost doubling its share of the vote since April. This rise places the left bloc in a potential position to govern if an election were held on Wednesday.
The Talbot Mills poll, commissioned by Anacta, indicates the Green Party is now at 13%, marking an increase of four percentage points since May. In April, the party stood at 7%.
Talbot Mills, known for its work with the Labour Party, reports Labour’s support at 34%, a decline of two points since May. Meanwhile, the National Party remains steady at 29%, consistent over the past three months.
New Zealand First has seen a decrease of two points since May, now at 12%, slightly behind the Greens.
Act NZ has dropped one point, currently sitting just above the 5% threshold needed to return to Parliament at 6%. The expectation is that the party will secure an electorate seat, ensuring its return to Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori has increased to 2.6% from 2.2% in May, while the Opportunity Party has risen to 3.3% from 2.8%.
Based on these figures, the coalition parties would garner 47% support, which translates to 59 seats using the Electoral Commission’s MMP seat calculator—insufficient to govern.
Conversely, the left bloc would achieve 49% support, equating to 61 seats, which is just enough to form a government.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins remains slightly ahead of Christopher Luxon in the preferred prime minister stakes, leading by one point. Hipkins is at 21%, a drop from 23% in May and 26% in March.
Luxon remains unchanged at 20%, where he has been since April. Winston Peters has decreased by three points to 14%.
Additionally, the poll reveals that 51% of voters disapprove of the coalition government, compared to 42% who approve.
The poll was conducted from 1-10 June and carries a margin of error of 3.1%.
