Wednesday, 2 Jul 2025
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • DMCA
logo logo
  • World
  • Politics
  • Crime
  • Economy
  • Tech & Science
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • More
    • Education
    • Celebrities
    • Culture and Arts
    • Environment
    • Health and Wellness
    • Lifestyle
  • 🔥
  • Trump
  • House
  • VIDEO
  • White
  • ScienceAlert
  • Watch
  • Trumps
  • man
  • Health
  • Day
Font ResizerAa
American FocusAmerican Focus
Search
  • World
  • Politics
  • Crime
  • Economy
  • Tech & Science
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • More
    • Education
    • Celebrities
    • Culture and Arts
    • Environment
    • Health and Wellness
    • Lifestyle
Follow US
© 2024 americanfocus.online – All Rights Reserved.
American Focus > Blog > Economy > Tariffs and the economy – Econlib
Economy

Tariffs and the economy – Econlib

Last updated: April 30, 2025 10:50 am
Share
Tariffs and the economy – Econlib
SHARE

There’s been a surge of discussions regarding the impact of tariffs on our economy. Here are my reflections on this multifaceted issue:

1. Tariffs: More Than Just Inflation

The primary effect of tariffs is not solely their influence on inflation.

2. Beyond the Business Cycle

Similarly, tariffs don’t significantly alter the business cycle.

3. Economists and Real Shocks

Many economists tend to overrate the influence of “real shocks,” such as tariffs, on inflation and the business cycle.

4. The Long View on Economic Growth

However, the most critical economic impact of tariffs lies in their long-term effect on economic growth. It’s worth noting that there are also non-economic consequences, including an increased risk of conflict.

5. Economists’ Consensus on Growth

In contrast, most economists do not exaggerate the impact of tariffs on long-term growth.

6. Monetary Policy’s Role

The influence of tariffs on the business cycle and inflation is heavily contingent on how monetary policymakers respond.

7. Tariffs and Long-Term Growth

Interestingly, monetary policy has minimal effect on how tariffs shape long-term growth.

8. Public Perception of the Economy

When the average person reflects on the state of “the economy,” they typically think in terms of the business cycle and inflation, rather than the more critical long-term growth trends.

9. The Subtlety of Economic Ruin

As the saying goes, “there is a great deal of ruin in a nation,” suggesting that even significant real shocks usually have only minor effects on long-term growth. Nevertheless, these seemingly minor effects can be crucial; a 0.2% decline in long-term growth can be far more detrimental than a 2% drop in GDP over a single year.

See also  Escalation dominance? - Econlib

When you synthesize these nine points, you unveil a tapestry of misunderstanding regarding the ongoing trade war. While I can’t predict how much monetary policy will counterbalance the situation or how the administration might modify tariffs in the near future, here are some cautious insights:

1. Recession Risks

At present, the existing tariff levels alone are unlikely to instigate a recession. However, the interplay between tariffs and monetary policy could lead to one. In simpler terms, the trade war is likely to lower the equilibrium or natural interest rate, which may tighten monetary policy by 2025. I would advocate for rate cuts, were it not for the fact that previous monetary strategies have been overly expansive and inflation continues to pose a significant challenge.

2. GDP Growth Figures

The recent GDP statistics may underrepresent the actual growth during Q1. The reality is that actual growth was likely more robust than reported, largely due to significant inventory accumulation that wasn’t accounted for. In essence, numerous goods arrived at ports but were recorded negatively under imports without being acknowledged positively in “inventory investment.” Consequently, Q2 growth might also be overstated. It’s wiser to monitor monthly indicators, like job reports, for a clearer picture of economic health.

3. The Administration’s Dilemma

The current administration is caught in a strategic quandary. It can sidestep a recession by easing off on the trade war, albeit at the expense of failing to address the trade deficit. Alternatively, it can pursue a more aggressive trade stance, risking a recession—a scenario that typically tends to reduce the trade deficit.

See also  Why Industrial Policy Is (Almost) Always a Bad Idea (with Scott Sumner)

4. Rethinking Manufacturing

While I believe manufacturing is often overvalued in public discourse, if we must focus on it, it would be wiser to prioritize the return of manufacturing output over manufacturing employment. In other words, we should focus on producing high-tech components like chips rather than assembling consumer gadgets like iPhones.

TAGGED:EconlibEconomyTariffs
Share This Article
Twitter Email Copy Link Print
Previous Article Meta Platforms (META) Stock Has “Definitely Been Derisked,” Prominent Investor Says Meta Platforms (META) Stock Has “Definitely Been Derisked,” Prominent Investor Says
Next Article Blue-haired NYC perv with long rap sheet busted for groping women, including blind victim, setting another woman’s hair on fire: cops Blue-haired NYC perv with long rap sheet busted for groping women, including blind victim, setting another woman’s hair on fire: cops
Leave a comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Popular Posts

Amateur Sleuth Identifies the Mystery Women in a Museum’s FabergĂ© Frames

An amateur detective's work at an English museum has finally solved the mystery surrounding two…

August 27, 2024

Kayla Harrison Opens Up On UFC 316 Weight Cut, Submitting Pena, Fight W/ Nunes!

The fact that I am now the women's bantamweight champion in the UFC is something…

June 11, 2025

How baby chickens became America’s hottest commodity

The demand for baby chickens has reached unprecedented levels, with stores like Murdoch's Ranch &…

April 18, 2025

Folie Ă  Deux’ Actor Says Cast Knew Movie Would Bomb While Making It

"Joker: Folie Ă  Deux" was doomed from the start, with even cast members predicting its…

November 9, 2024

Struggling To Sleep? 10 Fixes For Summer Insomnia

Summer nights can be a challenging time for many people when it comes to getting…

June 12, 2025

You Might Also Like

European CEOs urge Brussels to halt landmark AI Act
Economy

European CEOs urge Brussels to halt landmark AI Act

July 2, 2025
Soybeans Looking at Mixed Action on Tuesday
Economy

Soybeans Looking at Mixed Action on Tuesday

July 2, 2025
How Goldman Sachs won big in the Fed’s annual stress test
Economy

How Goldman Sachs won big in the Fed’s annual stress test

July 2, 2025
Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Scores a Street-High Price Target on B AI Revenue Forecast
Economy

Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Scores a Street-High Price Target on $90B AI Revenue Forecast

July 2, 2025
logo logo
Facebook Twitter Youtube

About US


Explore global affairs, political insights, and linguistic origins. Stay informed with our comprehensive coverage of world news, politics, and Lifestyle.

Top Categories
  • Crime
  • Environment
  • Sports
  • Tech and Science
Usefull Links
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • DMCA

© 2024 americanfocus.online –  All Rights Reserved.

Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?