Latino Voters Turn Out in Record Numbers in Texas Democratic Primary
In a significant turnaround for the Democratic Party, Latino voters showed up in large numbers for Tuesday’s primary in Texas, reversing a trend of declining support ahead of the crucial midterm elections. The data was striking: in five rural counties with majority Latino populations, voter turnout for the Democratic primary exceeded the votes cast for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
“These predominantly Hispanic counties are among the most competitive in the nation, and their message is clear,” remarked Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist who has studied Latino voting patterns extensively. “This is a wake-up call.”
The turnout surge offers a glimmer of hope for Democrats, suggesting they may once again be able to compete in Texas and in Latino communities nationwide, which could be pivotal for House control in November. Historically, Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley have posed a perplexing challenge for Democrats in recent cycles.
On Tuesday, the Democratic Party seemed to rediscover its footing.
The influx of Hispanic and Latino voters propelled state Rep. James Talarico to victory in his Senate primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting the stage for a general election that has sparked visions of a Democratic flip in Texas. In majority-Latino counties, Talarico’s margin was approximately 22 points, a stark contrast to his mere 3-point victory over Crockett statewide.
This development underscores that the Latino voters who previously aided Donald Trump’s ascent to the presidency are not necessarily loyal to the Republican Party. In fact, Democratic candidates demonstrated strong performances in Latino-dominated areas during gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey last November, as well as in a state Senate special election in Fort Worth last month.
The significance of these results cannot be overstated. South Texas has long served as a bellwether for the Democratic Party’s struggles with Latino voters. Despite a notable shift towards Trump in 2020, the party’s support in the Rio Grande Valley had been dwindling for several election cycles. For example, in Zapata County, where 94% of the population identifies as Hispanic, Trump’s vote share escalated from 33% in 2016 to 61% in 2024.
On Tuesday, Zapata County was among the five counties where Democratic primary participation surpassed the votes for Harris in 2024, joining Kenedy, Jim Hogg, Reeves, and Dimmit, with Talarico securing 55% of the vote across these regions.
Republicans have capitalized on their recent advances with Latinos, especially when they redrew congressional maps last year to favor themselves, targeting several majority-Latino districts for potential flips. However, those prospects now appear less certain. In the newly designed 35th Congressional District, stretching from San Antonio to Austin and predominantly Latino, the Democratic primary attracted 7,500 more voters than the Republican contest, with both primaries headed for runoff elections in a district Trump won by 10 points in 2024.
Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), whose district was also redrawn to be more favorable for Republicans and who faces a challenging election in November even after receiving a pardon from Trump in December, stated that Tuesday’s outcomes indicate Republicans’ gains in 2024 do not signify a political realignment.
Cuellar expressed that Latino voters are disenchanted with Republicans due to ongoing high costs and Trump’s tariffs, coupled with immigration enforcement measures that have exceeded voter comfort levels. “If ICE had limited its focus to deporting criminals, there would have been broad support. However, targeting individuals in workplaces and those with long-standing ties to the community has alienated many Hispanics from Republicans,” he explained.
Madrid contends that Latino voters have always been more of a swing demographic than many have acknowledged. With Trump’s presidency and persisting high prices, this creates potential openings for Democrats not only in Texas but across the nation. “The decline in Trump’s approval among Latinos began with his tariffs, a clear warning sign,” he noted.
In a best-case scenario for Democrats in Texas, both Cuellar and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) could retain their districts despite redistricting, while the party also flips the nearby 15th District, where Tejano singer Bobby Pulido won a primary to challenge Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, along with the open 35th district. If this unfolds, Republicans might secure only one additional seat in the state, despite their aggressive gerrymandering efforts.
While national Democrats have not prioritized Texas for regaining the Senate, hope lingers that Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas in over three decades. His appeal among Latino voters stands out, especially considering that the last Democratic candidate to nearly succeed in a Texas Senate race — Beto O’Rourke in 2018 — struggled with Latino support. O’Rourke lost many predominantly Latino counties in the primary, and lower turnout among these voters in the general election hampered his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, whom he lost to by less than three points.
Talarico has vigorously campaigned in the area. “His faith-driven messaging likely resonates with a community deeply rooted in faith,” remarked Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party. Scudder characterized Tuesday’s outcome as a positive initial step towards rebuilding connections with the community ahead of November but emphasized the need for the party to intensify its outreach efforts.
However, local Democrats, still reeling from past electoral losses, are not ready to celebrate. “It’s not the party that’s mobilizing people to the polls; it’s the outrageous actions of the administration and its affiliates that are doing so,” asserted Sylvia Bruni, chair of South Texas’ Webb County Democratic Party. While acknowledging a “prime opportunity” to regain the community amid the “abuse” they are experiencing, she stressed that the party must do significantly more to engage voters in remote, expansive regions, including Laredo.
The extent to which Democrats can reclaim ground in Texas may hinge on the Republican candidates they face. In the primary, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) performed slightly better in Latino areas than statewide, indicating he might be a more formidable candidate in the general election if he survives a runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn has historically garnered support in Latino regions of the state.
“John Cornyn has been a senator for quite some time, and there’s a sense of familiarity with South Texans,” remarked Daniel Garza, a Texas-based Republican strategist and president of the conservative Libre Initiative. “He is viewed as a trusted figure with considerable credibility, while Paxton lacks that same level of comfort.”
