“The interconnectedness of conflict and climate change intensifies vulnerabilities on both sides, creating a destructive cycle of fragility,” asserts the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). The correlation between these two global challenges is evident, and warnings have been raised about the worsening situation as planet temperatures rise.
In a pivotal 2019 study, researchers from Stanford University estimated that climate change accounts for approximately 3% to 20% of global conflicts over the past century. This influence is anticipated to increase further as climate shifts become more pronounced. The research by Marshall Burke and his fellow scientists found that even a modest increase in local temperatures — specifically, one standard deviation — correlates with an 11% greater likelihood of intergroup conflict.
READ: Ecocide and Resistance in Palestine
Environmental Impact of Warfare
World military operations exacerbate the climate crisis. Notably, the US Department of Defense is recognized as the largest institutional oil consumer globally, substantially contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Reports indicate that the Israeli military’s recent operations in Gaza produced more greenhouse gases in just two months than the annual emissions of approximately 20 climate-vulnerable nations, highlighting the devastating environmental repercussions of armed conflict.
Specifically, data revealed that over 99% of the 281,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide released during the first 60 days of conflict arose from Israel’s intense air and ground attacks, equivalent to the emissions of burning about 150,000 tonnes of coal. In stark contrast, the emissions caused by Hamas’s responses totaled an estimated 713 tonnes.
Furthermore, the use of white phosphorus shells by the Israeli military poses long-term risks to soil health, underlining the enduring environmental costs of warfare.
The Cycle of Destruction
Experts warn that the climate rehabilitation required after such conflicts imposes extensive emissions, potentially locking in environmental damage for years. A recent report from the Palestinian Institute for Climate Strategy estimates that Israel and its partners owe approximately $148 billion in climate reparations due to military-related emissions since the Nakba, with Israel accountable for $103 billion and the U.S. responsible for $40.8 billion.
The arms industry possesses unparalleled access to policy-makers, while groups advocating for environmental conservation and peace are often marginalized.
According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, countries such as Yemen, Mali, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Somalia, which are engulfed in conflict, rank among the least prepared to handle climate-related shocks.
In the Philippines, climate-induced changes like above-average rainfall during the wet season have devastated agricultural output, compelling herders to migrate in search of viable grazing lands. This migration has heightened tensions, as militant groups seek to capitalize on the plight of these displaced individuals.
Likewise, in Sudan, desertification impacts 65% of its land, creating an adverse feedback loop where conflict and climate degradation escalate one another.
Famine as a Byproduct of War and Climate Change
The Lake Chad Basin exemplifies a dire situation where drought and extreme weather conditions have destabilized agricultural communities, leaving young recruits vulnerable to groups like Boko Haram. Similarly, Mali, predominantly desert, contends with an array of climatic threats – persistent drought, flooding, and locust infestations – fueling volatility and unrest.
In Iraq, ISIS has exploited conditions resulting from climatic and economic challenges to bolster recruitment. Syria, which experienced a debilitating drought from 2006 to 2011, witnessed mass crop failure and livestock death, resulting in rural residents flocking to urban centers. This, in turn, contributed to significant social strains, which were among the catalysts for the civil war that has claimed countless lives and displaced millions.
The humanitarian emergency in Yemen, termed the world’s most severe, has been exacerbated by prolonged conflict leading to widespread famine and disease, claiming over 10,000 lives. A persistent drought in the region has caused more than half the population to face extreme water scarcity, compounding their hardship.
Afghanistan continues to grapple with extreme climate vulnerability due to recurring droughts and floods, further complicating its efforts to emerge from a continuous cycle of conflict and instability.
Military Expenditure vs. Climate Action
The British Ministry of Defence’s Climate Change and Sustainability Strategy highlights a troubling disconnect: it recognizes the necessity for military preparedness in a warming world yet disregards the substantial impact military expenditure has on global climate initiatives.
Arms manufacturing substantially contributes to environmental destruction, influencing every stage from raw material extraction to weapon production, deployment, and disposal. Those benefiting from arms sales maintain significant sway over governmental policies, often sidelining calls for ecological accountability.
Historical Context
Historical evidence supports the detrimental impact of conflict on environmental health. Following the Gulf War, retreating Iraqi forces ignited approximately 700 oil well fires, creating vast smoke covers extending over 800 miles and spilling millions of barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf, resulting in long-lasting environmental scars.
Recent geopolitical tensions, exemplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have instigated severe energy crises, further compounding the reliance on fossil fuels and delaying urgent climate actions.
Currently, reports from The Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights indicate there are 110 significant conflicts globally, illustrating how conflict and climate are interwoven in a cycle of degradation.
Tackling the climate emergency thus requires confronting the geopolitical, economic, and military frameworks that fuel our reliance on fossil fuels. The media must also hold vested interests accountable to address both climate change and conflict effectively.
In an open letter to the International Criminal Court, Richard J Rogers, Executive Director of Climate Counsel, and Moneim Adam, Director of the Sudan Human Rights Hub, emphasized that a deeper understanding of the interplay between escalating temperatures, conflict, and crimes against humanity is crucial for global governance. They called for climate security matters to be a central theme in ICC investigations.
“As the Earth continues to warm,” their letter poignantly states, “awareness of the linkages between climate change, conflict, and widespread human rights violations will enhance our capacity for prevention and responsive governance.”
About the Author
Tom Hardy brings over 40 years of experience in education, having worked as an editor, writer, and consultant. His work has appeared in the Times Educational Supplement and the International Journal of Art and Design Education, and he has advised the Department for Education. He is currently associated with Media Revolution.
This revised HTML article maintains the structure of the original while rephrasing it for a unique presentation. It should integrate smoothly into a WordPress platform while preserving essential formatting and important links.
