The massive consequences Trump’s reelection could have on climate change

The 2024 presidential election results have shocked climate policy experts and environmental advocates alike, with Donald J. Trump once again emerging as the president of the United States. The Associated Press called the race for Trump early Wednesday morning, marking the end of a tumultuous campaign cycle.

Trump’s victory promises to have significant implications for U.S. climate policy. As a known climate denier, Trump’s return to the White House, coupled with Republicans gaining control of the Senate, sets the stage for potential attacks on clean energy initiatives and a bolstering of support for the fossil fuel industry.

In his victory speech, Trump emphasized the country’s vast oil and gas potential, signaling his intention to expand fossil fuel production and roll back environmental regulations. His administration’s actions during his first term, such as withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and rolling back environmental rules, have set a precedent for what may come in the next four years.

Environmental advocates have expressed deep concern over Trump’s stance on climate change and clean energy. Ben Jealous, the executive director of the Sierra Club, described Trump’s reelection as a “dark day” for climate progress. The president-elect’s pledge to undo efforts made by the Biden administration to combat climate change could have far-reaching consequences.

One of Trump’s primary targets is likely to be the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark legislative win for climate action. The IRA directs funding into climate-friendly initiatives, but Trump has indicated his intention to rescind unspent funds and potentially terminate the law altogether.

While any attempt to roll back the IRA would require congressional support, Trump could take unilateral steps to slow spending and hinder the rollout process. With a conservative Supreme Court that has already undermined federal climate action, Trump may have an easier time implementing policies that favor the fossil fuel industry.

Trump’s support for expanded fossil fuel production is evident in his “drill, baby, drill” mantra. Industry executives have been promised tax and regulatory favors in exchange for campaign support, and Trump’s administration could further open up areas like the Arctic for drilling.

The implications of Trump’s climate policies extend beyond U.S. borders. His threats to abandon the Paris Agreement and use tariffs to protect U.S. companies could disrupt global efforts to address climate change. Solar panels, electric vehicle batteries, and other clean energy technologies could see a surge in prices due to potential retaliatory tariffs.

In addition to overt policy changes, Trump may also take quieter steps to shape climate policy, such as influencing federal research functions and the response to health concerns related to climate change. His administration’s track record of gutting funding for research and appointing climate skeptics to key positions raises concerns about the future of climate science under his leadership.

Overall, Trump’s reelection poses a significant threat to climate progress and environmental protection. The next four years are likely to see a rollback of climate initiatives and a boost to the fossil fuel industry, with potentially dire consequences for the environment and public health. The Trump administration faced criticism for censoring scientific data on government websites and attempting to undermine the findings of the National Climate Assessment, the government’s comprehensive report on the risks and impacts of climate change to the country. This move was part of a broader strategy outlined in Project 2025, a blueprint developed by conservative groups and former Trump administration officials, which aimed to deprioritize climate science and potentially restructure or eliminate federal agencies dedicated to advancing it.

“The nation and world can expect the incoming Trump administration to take a wrecking ball to global climate diplomacy,” remarked Rachel Cleetus, the policy director and lead economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union for Concerned Scientists. She emphasized the urgent need to address climate change, highlighting the irreversible consequences of delaying action and the disproportionate impact on everyday people.

Supporters of the president-elect expressed eagerness to implement their agenda, with Mandy Gunasekara, a former chief of staff of the Environmental Protection Agency during Trump’s first term, suggesting that the second administration would be more prepared to enact its policies promptly. One of the early targets could be the Biden-era tailpipe emissions rules, which Trump had criticized as an electric vehicle “mandate.”

During his first term, Trump also sought to weaken Obama-era emissions regulations, but the auto industry bypassed the federal government by reaching a deal directly with states. This approach may signal how environmental advocates could navigate the challenges posed by a second Trump presidency. Even before the election, climate activists were bracing for the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing from the global diplomatic stage on climate issues.

Christiana Figueres, the former United Nations climate chief, acknowledged the setback to global climate action resulting from the election but emphasized the importance of grassroots efforts. She highlighted ongoing initiatives worldwide that are driving climate progress, despite political challenges.

As the world grapples with the implications of a second Trump administration, officials and diplomats have reportedly engaged in secret conversations and crisis simulations to strategize on maximizing climate progress. The upcoming COP29 conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, will likely be a pivotal moment for global climate action.

In the face of uncertainty and adversity, Figueres urged for continued action on the ground to combat climate change and mitigate its impacts. The collective efforts of individuals, organizations, and governments worldwide will be crucial in addressing this pressing global challenge.