The next big battleground test: A Wisconsin race that has tortured Republicans

In the wake of a punishing electoral defeat last November, Republicans are grappling with internal divisions as they prepare for a critical upcoming electoral challenge: the statewide judicial race in Wisconsin, a pivotal battleground state.

Wisconsin voters are set to cast their ballots in April for the state’s next Supreme Court justice, marking the fourth such election since 2020. The previous three contests saw liberal candidates trounce their GOP-backed opponents, leaving conservatives—who held a majority on the court just last year—lost in the political wilderness.

Now, the Republican Party finds itself at a crossroads, with factions debating whether to double down on the party’s brand, complete with Trump’s controversial influence, or to distance themselves from the partisan label in a nostalgic attempt to reinstate less polarizing judicial races.

“If you don’t communicate your position to voters, you risk diminishing their motivation to engage,” cautioned Brandon Scholz, the former executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. “On the other side, liberals will mobilize every anti-Trump voter they can find in Wisconsin.”

While these elections are officially nonpartisan, both Republicans and Democrats have invested heavily—tens of millions of dollars—into recent races, driven by the significant legal implications of cases that may arise before the court. For instance, in July, liberal justices overturned Wisconsin’s 176-year-old abortion ban, and in April, the court ruled that Democratic Governor Tony Evers could secure a 400-year school funding increase through his line-item veto power. This ideological divide has led Democrats to anticipate the court’s involvement in a redistricting case ahead of the 2026 election.

Maria Lazar, the conservative candidate vying for a seat on the court, believes the path to reclaiming the position lies in steering the election away from the extremes of political discourse.

“This race should not be framed as a Republican versus a Democrat,” asserted Lazar, a seasoned judge who has served on an appellate court in Waukesha for the past three years. “I am fundamentally a judge, not a politician.”

However, some influential GOP operatives in Wisconsin harbor doubts that this approach will end the party’s recent losing streak.

The days of conservative candidates successfully selling vague concepts of jurisprudence and rule of law are long gone, lamented Scholz, who left the Republican Party in 2021.

These concerns are amplified by the inherent disadvantages that Republicans face in spring elections: they are contending with a voter base that has shifted noticeably to the left in recent years, despite a razor-thin margin in November elections, including a Trump victory by less than a point in 2024. Democrats have shown a knack for mobilizing their base effectively.

“The voters who actually turn out in these elections are highly motivated, well-informed, and primarily educated,” noted Alejandro Verdin, a Democratic strategist who spearheaded the successful 2023 Supreme Court campaign for liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz. “Most voters don’t think, ‘Oh, I should make it to the polls in spring.’”

Republicans’ only glimmer of hope lies in rallying their own supporters, emphasized Alec Zimmerman, who served as communications director for Senator Ron Johnson during his 2022 campaign.

“There’s no substantial middle ground to sway; this is a low-turnout election, and the team that gets its voters to the polls will prevail. Their focus needs to be there,” he stated.

The filing deadline isn’t until January, yet Lazar and Chris Taylor, a former Democratic state lawmaker appointed by Evers to a lower court in 2020, are the only candidates who have declared their intention to run. While the state GOP has not formally endorsed Lazar, spokesperson Anika Rickard hinted at the party’s support, remarking, “I believe her approach is sound as we move into this election.”

Lazar is acutely aware of the disastrous 2025 campaign, in which Susan Crawford defeated conservative Brad Schimel by about ten points in a contest that attracted over $90 million in spending, including significant financial backing from Elon Musk.

Schimel leaned heavily into his MAGA credentials, famously dressing as Trump for Halloween. Musk even suggested that “Western civilization” was at risk if Schimel lost.

“Last year was a glaring example of the disastrous trends we’ve seen,” Lazar reflected. “After all the money was spent and discussions exhausted, I often ask people, ‘Do you know anything about the qualifications or the merits of each judicial candidate?’ The answer is invariably ‘no.’”

However, abandoning the Republican label may not suffice to attract enough new voters, strategists warn. This dilemma reflects broader challenges for the Wisconsin GOP, which has struggled to energize Trump’s core supporters when he is not on the ballot.

“Voters don’t buy into the notion that donning a black robe magically transforms someone into an impartial arbiter,” remarked Ben Voelkel, a former senior aide to Johnson and a one-time candidate for lieutenant governor. “Legal professionals might appreciate that, but the average voter does not connect with it.”

Nathan Conrad, a campaign spokesperson for Lazar, highlighted the position papers available on her campaign website, emphasizing their commitment to articulating her stance through both traditional and social media outreach.

“We are actively engaging with issues and discussing them,” he said. “These sound like outdated talking points from past campaigns that have failed. We will continue to connect with every voter and clarify where Maria stands.”

The dynamics of this election differ significantly from the last two, which determined the majority party. Unless there are resignations, liberal justices will maintain their majority until at least 2028, even if they lose in the spring.

Nonetheless, Democrats believe that their constituents recognize the urgency in the wake of a series of favorable rulings.

“You don’t achieve margins of plus ten percent in our elections without winning over some middle-ground and even conservative-leaning voters,” asserted Devin Remiker, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. “We understand, perhaps more than other states, just how critical every single election is, particularly those involving the Supreme Court.”