TO: White House Communications Staff
FROM: Office of Management and Budget Staff
SUBJECT: The One Big Beautiful Bill: A Leap Toward Fiscal Improvement
Topline: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) is poised to dramatically reshape our nation’s financial landscape, boasting an unprecedented $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings—the highest in U.S. history. This bill not only promises to spark economic growth through the adoption of President Trump’s tax policies but also sets the stage for a reduction in deficits by an estimated $6.6 trillion over the next decade. In short, it’s a fiscal makeover worthy of a reality show.
Historic Mandatory Savings: The OBBB eclipses previous efforts in deficit reduction, making prior legislation look like mere pocket change. For perspective, it surpasses the savings achieved by notable bills such as the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 ($140 billion) and the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 ($800 billion), when adjusted for inflation. This bill isn’t just another drop in the bucket; it’s a deluge.
How the One Big Beautiful Bill Tackles the Deficit: Let’s get real: no Republican in Congress would stand idly by while a 40% tax hike looms, courtesy of the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Yet, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has played a little fast and loose with projections, assuming the TCJA will fade away, resulting in a staggering $3.8 trillion tax increase. A more honest assessment of future deficits should factor in the TCJA continuation, as shown in the table below:
| Baseline Deficits | Deficit Impact ($ billions) |
|---|---|
| CBO Baseline Deficit (+) FYs 2025-2034 | $21,092 |
| TCJA Extension | $3,760 |
| Change in Debt Service | $594 |
| Current Baseline Deficit | $25,445 |
On its own, the OBBB is projected to reduce the deficit by more than $1.4 trillion. This figure, however, comes with caveats, as it includes one-time expenditures aimed at fortifying our borders and implementing tax cuts, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, partially offset by closing certain tax loopholes. In total, the OBBB achieves a net deficit reduction of $1.407 trillion, as outlined below:
| Deficit Effect of Policies in OBBB | Deficit Impact ($ billions) |
|---|---|
| Border/Defense Spending | $297 |
| Net Mandatory Savings | ($1,675) |
| Net New Trump Tax Cuts | $130 |
| Other Non-Tax Revenues | ($95) |
| Change in Debt Service | ($63) |
| Total Deficit Reduction from OBBB | ($1,407) |
It’s crucial to emphasize that the $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings are not temporary fixes, but permanent changes in law that will continue to yield benefits well into the future.
Trump Administration Policies Driving Down the Deficit: While the OBBB is a significant part of the Trump Administration’s broader strategy for deficit reduction—including increases in tariff revenues, substantial discretionary spending cuts, and a rollback of the previous administration’s welfare expansions—it’s just one piece of the puzzle. In under five months, the Administration has initiated deficit reduction measures that could amount to more than $6.7 trillion over the next decade:
| Total Deficit Effect of Trump Policies | Deficit Impact ($ billions) |
|---|---|
| Net Impact of OBBB | ($1,407) |
| Tariffs to Date | ($2,800) |
| Discretionary Spending (FYs ’25 and ’26) | ($1,555) |
| Change in Debt Service | ($759) |
| Regulatory Changes1 | ($170 – $400) |
| Deficit Reduction from Trump Policies | ($6,691 – $6,921) |
The expected deficit reduction could be even more significant if the economic growth stemming from lower taxes, relaxed regulations, reciprocal trade, revitalization of American energy, and spending cuts exceeds the CBO’s projections.
Bottom Line: While the journey towards balancing the budget is far from over, the enactment of the OBBB is a critical step toward fulfilling President Trump’s fiscal commitments. Without it, any aspirations for a balanced budget might just remain a mirage in the desert of political rhetoric.
