The Slave to Our Passions

I recently came across some fascinating remarks made by Giannis Antetokounmpo, a player for the Milwaukee Bucks, regarding his former coach:

Antetokounmpo expressed a sense of unease about facing his former coach Budenholzer from across the court, particularly given their close relationship during five successful seasons in Milwaukee.

“It’s definitely strange,” Giannis commented. “Watching him voice frustration over plays I execute, like charges and push-offs, which he used to applaud when we were together and clinched a championship.”

“He appreciated those moves back then, but now I’m on the opposing side.”

This scenario is amusing on the surface, as it highlights a universal truth about coaches—they often play the role of advocates rather than impartial arbiters. Their primary concern lies in securing victory rather than discerning the legitimacy of fouls or plays. Yet, it’s entirely understandable for Antetokounmpo to feel a sense of “weirdness”; in the heat of competition, we are inclined to believe our actions are justified and tend to view reality through a biased lens.

As David Hume famously articulated, “Reason is the slave to the passions.” Individuals often establish what they desire first and subsequently seek justifications for their actions. Take tariffs, for instance. Advocates for high tariffs frequently argue that the U.S. is being exploited by other nations, claiming that these countries impose significantly higher tariff rates. Contrarily, the reality is that our primary trading partners often have similar or even lower rates than those in the U.S. Adopting “reciprocal tariffs” would entail eliminating tariff rates with these partners.

Nationalists often point to specific high tariffs in foreign countries that surpass U.S. rates, conveniently ignoring that we also have individual trade barriers that are considerably higher than those of our trade partners. David Henderson has expressed skepticism regarding the notion of these tariffs being truly reciprocal.

In a recent article, I mentioned that the approximate $100 billion in tariffs on Canadian and Mexican automobiles would represent one of the largest tax increases in U.S. history. Today’s revelations, however, indicate a much larger figure, potentially around $400 billion—though this is uncertain as the tariffs will affect import volumes as well. Regardless, this could indeed be the most significant tax hike ever seen in America, even when adjusted for inflation, although the wartime tax increases during WWII likely had a greater GDP impact.

Predicting the economic consequences of such actions is premature, especially since President Trump’s tariff strategies often undergo adjustments post-negotiation. Furthermore, the overall effects are significantly influenced by monetary policy responses. If inflation remains targeted at 2%, we could face a recession. Conversely, if monetary policy shifts to stave off a recession, we might see increased inflation as a result.