Of the 52 climate targets necessary for achieving net zero by 2050, only six have been met or are progressing as planned. The remaining 46 targets are either lagging, failing, or in a state of Code Red. This assessment comes from the Speed & Scale tracker, a comprehensive public scorecard that evaluates the global economy’s pace in reducing emissions.
This tracker is part of an initiative launched in 2021 by investor John Doerr, recognized for his early investments in Google and Amazon. He applied Silicon Valley’s Objectives and Key Results approach to address the climate crisis. The 2026 edition introduces a new letter by Doerr titled “Let’s Build, Friends, Build,” emphasizing the importance of creating tangible solutions. As Doerr notes, mere promises will not cool the planet; actual progress requires emission reductions.
How the Tracker Works
Speed & Scale segments decarbonization into 10 primary goals, including electrifying transportation and supporting clean energy investments. These goals are accompanied by measurable key results with milestones set for 2035 and 2050. Progress is evaluated on a five-tier scale, ranging from Achieved to Code Red, the latter indicating areas with emissions exceeding 3 gigatons annually and minimal progress.
The 2026 update employs Climate TRACE, a satellite and AI-based system, instead of UN country reports for emissions measurement. This shift increased the baseline from 59 gigatons in 2019 to 74 gigatons in 2024. This rise is attributed not to a sudden spike in emissions, but to TRACE identifying fossil-fuel activities often overlooked in country reports. Atmospheric COâ‚‚ levels now stand at 429 parts per million, approximately 53 percent higher than pre-industrial levels.
Where Cost Curves Are Winning
The successful key results share a common factor: clean technology has become more cost-effective. Electric vehicles exemplify this trend. A decade ago, there were about one million EVs on the road; today, that number has surpassed 50 million. EVs account for over 20 percent of new car sales globally and more than half in China. In the first three quarters of 2025, the expansion of solar and wind energy was sufficient to halt the growth of fossil fuels in electricity. According to BloombergNEF, solar costs have decreased by 84 percent since 2010.
Globally, there are now three million more clean-energy jobs than fossil-fuel jobs, according to the International Energy Agency. Among the 249 Fortune Global 500 companies reporting direct emissions (Scope 1 and 2), there has been a 23 percent reduction since 2019. However, Scope 3 emissions, which encompass supply chain and product use, constitute about 95 percent of their total emissions and are not decreasing as rapidly.
Code Red: Where the Cost Curve Hasn’t Bent
Despite the IEA’s claim that 75 percent of methane emissions from oil and gas operations could be cut with existing technology, often at a net savings, these emissions continue to rise. Methane is approximately 80 times more potent than CO₂ over 20 years, making it the most cost-effective emission reduction strategy, yet progress is regressing.
Most building heating and cooling systems still depend on fossil fuels, despite one million new buildings being constructed each month. Heavy industry is also lagging: there are no commercial-scale zero-carbon steel plants, and only one net-zero cement facility worldwide. The tracker indicates a need for 700 steel and 300 cement plants by 2035. Industrial agriculture and livestock are also marked as Code Red. Carbon removal efforts are significantly behind—by 2025, just over one million metric tons have been removed, according to CDR.fyi, compared to the plan’s goal of 14 billion tons per year by 2050.
Where Each Objective Stands
| Goal | On Track | Not On Track |
| Electrify Transportation | Cars | Planes and ships failing |
| Decarbonize the Grid | Solar & wind | Methane and buildings Code Red |
| Fix Food | None on track | Farming and meat Code Red |
| Protect Nature | Gradual | 18 soccer fields of tropical forest lost per minute in 2024 |
| Clean Up Industry | Pilots only | Steel, cement, plastics all Code Red or failing |
| Remove Carbon | Afforestation | Scale roughly 10,000x short |
| Politics & Policy | EU NDC aligned | U.S. has no national commitment; carbon pricing failing |
| Movements → Action | Clean-energy jobs achieved | Voter salience, air quality, education lagging |
| Innovate | Electricity and EV costs | Industrial heat, steel, cement, hydrogen all failing |
| Invest | None on track | Fossil-fuel subsidies still exceed clean-energy incentives |
The Build Imperative — and the 1.5°C Verdict
In his latest letter, Doerr highlights three main forces shaping the climate challenge: the increasing demand for electricity, the global dynamics of clean-tech manufacturing, and decreasing costs driven by market forces. He asserts, “We cannot cut fossil fuels without building the alternative.” The updated tracker reflects this shift. While the 2021 plan emphasized percentage reductions, the 2026 version specifies what needs to be constructed: 600 million EVs, 700 zero-carbon steel mills, and 30,000 TWh of solar and wind power.
Doerr also conveys a sobering update: Speed & Scale now acknowledges that keeping global warming to 1.5°C is no longer feasible. Five additional years of rising emissions have depleted the remaining carbon budget. The new objective is to remain below 2°C, with the U.S., EU, and China targeting net zero by 2050.
