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American Focus > Blog > Tech and Science > The world is on track for between 1.9 and 3.7°C of warming by 2100
Tech and Science

The world is on track for between 1.9 and 3.7°C of warming by 2100

Last updated: January 25, 2025 12:50 am
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The world is on track for between 1.9 and 3.7°C of warming by 2100
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Coal power plants contribute to global warming

Walaiporn Sangkeaw

Recent studies indicate that current government policies worldwide may lead to a significant rise in Earth’s temperature, ranging between 1.9 and 3.7°C by the year 2100, with the potential for further warming in the 22nd century.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the California-based software company Stripe, conducted a comprehensive review of over a dozen studies published in the last five years. These studies suggest that the most probable scenario is a temperature increase of 2.3 to 3°C by the end of this century. However, uncertainties regarding future greenhouse gas emissions and the climate system’s response to these emissions widen the projected range to 1.9 to 3.7°C.

These estimates represent the likely range of outcomes, with a small possibility of temperatures rising as much as 4.4°C if current policies persist. Fortunately, the studies also indicate that extremely high emission scenarios are now less likely, as efforts to limit emissions, particularly from coal use, have shown progress.

While there is a chance for even lower emissions if climate policies are strengthened and technological advancements continue to outpace expectations, the emergence of energy-intensive technologies like artificial intelligence could potentially offset these gains.

Hausfather acknowledges the potential for AI-related emissions to contribute to near-term increases in emissions, but he believes it is unlikely to significantly alter the long-term trajectory of emissions reductions.

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