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American Focus > Blog > Economy > Trade War Fears – Econlib
Economy

Trade War Fears – Econlib

Last updated: March 12, 2025 7:02 pm
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Trade War Fears – Econlib
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Among my cinematic favorites, the 1982 cyberpunk-noir masterpiece Blade Runner stands out. This film didn’t just launch the cyberpunk genre; it catalyzed a broader transformation in science fiction, paving the way for iconic works like Akira and influencing renowned directors such as Guillermo del Toro, Christopher Nolan, and Denis Villeneuve. Its exploration of humanity, technology, capitalism, gender dynamics, and environmentalism continues to fuel spirited discussions. Not too shabby for a movie that was deemed a box-office disappointment upon its release.

Set in a dystopian 2019 Los Angeles, the film depicts the Tyrell Corporation, a powerful entity that has engineered synthetic humans, known as replicants, to perform perilous tasks in space. Unsurprisingly, some replicants rebel against their designated roles. The film’s protagonist, blade runner Rick Deckard (played by Harrison Ford), is tasked with tracking down four particularly dangerous replicants who have gone rogue.

Having viewed this film countless times, I’ve found that knowing the dialogue by heart allows me to shift my focus to the background. This time around, I was struck by the film’s portrayal of Los Angeles as overwhelmingly Japanese. The cultural landscape is saturated with Japanese cuisine, language, and corporate identities. Even the Tyrell Corporation was originally conceived as a Japanese conglomerate in early drafts of the script.

Why this emphasis on Japan? The answer lies in the 1980s perception of Japan as an emerging economic titan, perceived as a threat to American dominance. Economist Lester Thurow wrote extensively during this period, arguing that Japan’s state-driven economic model was on track to displace the U.S. as the global economic leader. American businesses grew increasingly anxious about the prospect of Japanese competition, with thought leaders like Peter Drucker advocating for the adoption of Japanese management practices in the U.S. The anxiety was palpable, leading to lobbying for tariffs and restrictions on Japanese imports to avert a Blade Runner-esque future.

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Ironically, these fears were largely exaggerated. While Thurow was penning his warnings, Japan’s economy was already entering a phase of stagnation. The 1990s and 2000s saw Japan’s real GDP grow a mere 24.9% (source) compared to a robust 115.1% growth in the United States during the same timeframe (source). Additionally, Japanese industrial production (excluding construction) averaged a meager 0.1% growth (source) while the U.S. saw an average increase of 1.2% (source). The anticipated Japanese economic hegemony never materialized.

Fast forward to around 2010, and similar anxieties have surfaced regarding China. The narrative remains unchanged; just swap “China” for “Japan” and “Peter Navarro” for “Lester Thurow.” Once again, we hear the familiar refrain of impending economic supremacy driven by state-controlled corporations and an alleged superiority in industrial policy. The refrain insists that America must cower in fear, adopt foreign systems, or risk being overwhelmed. Yet, just as with Japan, these fears are misplaced. China’s economy is currently grappling with stagnation, squandering resources in a manner that is unsustainable. Without significant market reforms, China risks joining Japan in the annals of economic history. All those fears will ultimately dissipate like tears in the rain.

Fiction often serves as a mirror to reality, offering valuable lessons from the past. One significant takeaway is this: while players may change, the game remains the same. The hand just reshuffles the deck.

 

 

P.S. It’s fascinating how cultural perceptions can linger. Despite the fading fears of Japanese economic dominance, cyberpunk narratives continue to depict Japan as a powerful cultural force. For instance, the video game Cyberpunk 2077, set in the far-off year of 2077, still showcases Japanese culture as a dominant influence in the fictional Californian city of Night City. Ridley Scott’s stylistic choices from the 1980s still resonate in 2025.

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P.P.S. I recently asked Midjourney to create an image of me in a cyberpunk setting, and I’m quite fond of this result:

 

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