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class=”img” alt=”Tropical Storm Arthur, seen here in a satellite image from Wednesday morning, is the first named storm of the Atlantic season, bringing the threat of dangerous floods along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center predicts the system will not strengthen much before making landfall.”
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Tropical Storm Arthur, seen here in a satellite image from Wednesday morning, is the first named storm of the Atlantic season, bringing the threat of dangerous floods along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center predicts the system will not strengthen much before making landfall.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-19
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NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-19
The season’s first named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur, is already impacting the northwestern Gulf Coast with heavy rainfalls. According to a National Hurricane Center advisory, Arthur is situated 40 miles east-northeast of Port Connor, Texas.
With maximum sustained winds reaching 40 mph, just a notch above the threshold for a tropical storm, Arthur is not anticipated to significantly intensify. However, forecasters caution about the potential for severe flash flooding and urban floods. The storm is moving northeast and is expected to reach inland over southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night.
The National Hurricane Center states, “Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday” along much of the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Arthur is projected to dissipate by Wednesday night or early Thursday. However, in an online briefing, NHC Director Michael Brennan emphasized that the slow-moving system poses substantial rain risks for areas located hundreds of miles inland.
Brennan noted, “The main threat from Arthur is going to be a prolonged multi-day heavy rainfall event that could produce dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.” Behind him, a screen highlighted flood watch advisories extending from the Texas coast to South Georgia.
He also mentioned, “And that heavy rainfall threat is going to persist even after the center of Arthur moves farther inland and dissipates.”
The hurricane center has issued a tropical storm warning from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, La., indicating that tropical storm conditions are expected within 12 hours.
According to Houston Public Media, all of Southeast Texas is under a flood watch until 7 p.m. Wednesday. Officials in Galveston County advise against driving through flooded areas.
Arthur’s emergence was slightly ahead of the typical schedule. Between 1991 and 2020, the average date for the first named Atlantic storm was June 20, as noted by the hurricane center. During the same period, the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane was August 11.
Climate change is intensifying hurricanes, as warmer sea water evaporates more readily, fueling these storms. Warmer air can also hold more water, resulting in heavier rainfall.
The National Hurricane Center forecasted in May that the 2026 Atlantic storm season would have fewer storms than average. The recently declared El Niño is expected to hinder hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean.
However, warmer ocean waters increase the likelihood of a large and destructive hurricane developing this year. It only takes one potent storm to bring life-threatening rainfall and storm surges that can cause devastation far inland from the coast.
