Chart of the Week: Insights on Van Contract Rates in the USA – SONAR: VCRPM1.USA
The contract rates for the dry van truckload sector (VCRPM1) have experienced a slowdown this year compared to the previous year, registering a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year as of early September. This drop is less significant compared to the ~2% decline observed between 2023 and 2024. After witnessing upward momentum in the latter half of last year, it seems those gains have been entirely offset. This raises important questions about the implications for the upcoming bid cycle later in the year.
According to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), the cost to operate a truck surged by approximately 33% from 2019 to 2024. Conversely, contract rates have only increased by 17% during the same timeframe.
Considering the current trend of stagnation, it indicates that carriers may have found a pricing floor. While some efficiencies can still be extracted through competitive network leverage, shippers with a limited carrier pool find few avenues for long-term cost savings.
Examining the interplay between spot (NTIL12) and contract rates reveals that spot rates continue to provide cost benefits for those purchasing capacity on a short-term basis. However, the notable divergence between these two rate types indicates a gradual increase in spot rates, while contract rates are flattening or slightly declining.
In this landscape, the spot market serves as the effective pricing floor, reflecting the culmination of all operational efficiencies, which now appears to be on the rise.
The data for spot rates primarily comes from brokers focused on smaller fleets and owner-operators, while contract rates are derived from invoices involving larger fleets and major shipping companies. To contextualize, the white line illustrates the rate situation when collaborating with 20-30 carriers, while the orange line signifies leveraging an expansive network of around 200,000 carriers, thus explaining the typically lower spot rates.
Data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) indicates a steady decline of 100-200 carriers per week over the past 18 months. Given the lag in reporting—where carriers take time to be recognized as inactive—the actual figures are probably higher. This gradual attrition of carriers helps clarify the rising upward pressure on spot rates.
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