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Anticipating the final House vote on the tax cuts for the affluent, which also threatens to strip food and healthcare from millions, no one was expecting a smooth ride. The dynamic duo of Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson complicated matters further with an arbitrary deadline, pushing for the passage of a substantially altered bill in a mere two days.
As expected, the process is unfolding with all the grace of a hippo on a unicycle.
A number of members from the House Freedom Caucus are already voicing their opposition. Representative Norman has firmly stated he will vote against both the rule and the bill. Roy has significant reservations, particularly regarding projections that the package could inflate the deficit by trillions. Meanwhile, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) has been candid on local radio, expressing skepticism about the bill’s chances of passing in its current form and aligning with Elon Musk’s view that it’s fundamentally flawed.
Trump and Johnson successfully swayed many of these Republicans in the past by convincing them the legislation would improve over time. That persuasive thread appears to have frayed.
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Sources within the House GOP whip team expressed concerns Tuesday night regarding unexpected opposition reflected on their whip cards. Alarmingly, they noted a growing list of lawmakers who are signaling they will oppose the bill.
Currently, the count of Republicans signaling a “no” vote ranges from one to two dozen, excluding Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who has already declared his opposition. With Massie on board as a definite no, the party can afford to lose two votes before the bill faces defeat.
As I mentioned during a live chat at The Daily, there are two potential outcomes for the bill: either it narrowly passes, or it meets a spectacular demise as a wave of House Republicans refuse to back it.
House Republicans have come to recognize that there is strength in numbers, particularly in the face of Trump’s tendency to bully individuals. By rallying together, they can shield themselves from his wrath. Should this bill fail and be sent back to the Senate, it will be due to the collective resistance of more than just a handful of House Republicans.
There’s little incentive for House Republicans to rush the bill through this week. They would be jeopardizing their own positions merely to provide Trump with a photo opportunity for the Fourth of July. By rejecting the Senate’s version, they would force necessary revisions.
While there remains a chance for Trump and Johnson to push this bill through, significant challenges loom ahead, and the path is anything but easy.
What are your thoughts on the House GOP’s challenges with this bill? Feel free to share your insights in the comments section below.
