One of the key aspects of governance that Donald Trump has not fully comprehended is that threats do not equate to policy. His approach to the conflict with Iran has often involved making threats about further bombings. However, these threats have been largely dismissed or ridiculed by Iran.
For threats to be impactful, they must be perceived as credible. Despite months of threats, Trump’s lack of follow-through has led Iran to doubt their seriousness.
Following unsuccessful bombings intended to force Iran into submission, which led to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump initiated a blockade of the Strait. This action was intended to pressure Iran into negotiations by creating an oil storage crisis that would halt production.
Javier Blas, a Bloomberg columnist, commented on X that Trump’s recent attempts to reopen the Strait indicate an acknowledgment of the blockade’s ineffectiveness:
The effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the crossing of two US warships and two US-flagged merchant vessels, suggests the White House realizes it cannot continue relying on the blockade to bring Iran to the negotiating table.
In essence, it acknowledges the blockade’s failure (if viewed as a means to secure Iranian concessions, rather than an end goal). The expected impact on Iran’s oil industry was miscalculated.
The blockade aimed to create urgency for Iran to conclude the conflict by imposing similar pressures that the Trump administration had exerted. However, its failure has led Trump to revert to issuing threats against Iran.
