In April, I wrote about the potential development of a super El Niño by the end of the year. Not only has this El Niño already emerged, but recent data from nearly all seasonal forecast models indicate a 90% likelihood of it becoming the strongest on record. Indeed, nearly every seasonal forecasting model available to climate experts predicts an unprecedented El Niño.
Earth is poised to break global temperature records
A massive super El Niño could significantly impact global weather, climate systems, and human systems reliant on them, such as agriculture and food security. Typically, El Niño leads to a warmer global average temperature due to increased ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Tropical Pacific. Warmer oceans release more heat into the atmosphere, raising global air temperatures.
In a previous blog, I highlighted how El Niño and fossil fuel-driven climate change form a harmful combination. While El Niño is a natural climatic cycle, fossil fuel-driven climate change is not. When an El Niño event coincides with Earth’s warming from fossil fuel emissions, the planet warms even more.
A very strong El Niño, or super El Niño, is likely to push global temperatures into record-breaking territory. Refer to the latest model forecast simulations from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME; below). The observed global surface temperature anomaly (compared with the 1850-1900 average) is on the left side of the graph. This year, each month has been more than 1.0°C (1.8°F) warmer compared to the same period in the late 1800s.
Global surface temperatures from July 2025 to March 2027, showing observed temperatures up to July 2026 and projected temperatures after that. On the right, the thin orange lines show individual model projects, and the red line shows their average. NOAA/University of Miami.
The graph’s right panel forecasts temperatures through March 2027. With a super El Niño, global average temperatures are predicted to soar. Monthly temperature anomalies could reach 2.0°C during January, February, and March 2027, with nearly half of the models predicting values exceeding 2.0°C. Some models even extend beyond 2.5°C, suggesting a potential monthly global average temperature anomaly of 2.5°C. This would mark a significant increase in global warming, especially since the 1.5°C threshold was briefly surpassed in 2024.
Remember, 1.5°C and 2°C are the temperature limits set in the Paris Climate Agreement as safer thresholds. The combination of fossil fuel-driven climate change and this Super El Niño might temporarily breach these targets.
Climate change and El Niño
Why is this record-breaking super El Niño happening, and is it connected to climate change caused by fossil fuels? Here are two points to consider:
1) Our current climate system—comprising the ocean, atmosphere, land, and cryosphere—has fundamentally changed due to climate change. It is different from the climate system of the 1950s. Therefore, every climatic or meteorological event, even natural cycles like El Niño, is affected by these changes.
2) Evidence suggests that fossil fuel-driven climate change directly influences El Niño. As previously mentioned, a study revealed that recent El Niño and La Niña events have become more extreme. Another study indicated worsening impacts of El Niño events on weather patterns due to climate change.
The oceans are extremely warm
Contrary to expectations, record-breaking ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Tropical Pacific have been reached even before the super El Niño is fully underway. Ocean temperatures in the primary El Niño development area are already at record levels (below), not merely surpassing the previous record for mid-July by nearly 0.5°C (0.9°F) but also exceeding the 1991-2020 average by over 2.0°C (3.6°F).
Daily sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region, which is an area in the eastern Tropical Pacific where El Niño typically develops. The red line is 2026 values, the orange line is 2025. The dashed lines are 1991-2020 (thicker dashed) and 1982-2010 (lighter dashed) averages. ClimateReanalyzer.
Globally, ocean surface temperatures have also reached record levels for this time of year, driven by both the El Niño region and marine heatwaves affecting nearly 40% of the ocean. NOAA’s marine heatwave tracker shows unusually hot ocean temperatures in every ocean basin (below). The Pacific Ocean, where the super El Niño is forming, is a major hotspot, but the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean, and the Mediterranean are also affected. Heat in the Mediterranean contributed to the heat dome that caused record temperatures in Europe last month, resulting in over 20,000 excess deaths.
NOAA coral reef watch daily map for tracking marine heatwaves. The areas in yellow, orange, and red denote oceans currently experiencing a marine heatwave. NOAA.
The extreme heat in the oceans is not surprising. They have absorbed over 90% of the additional heat from the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in a staggering amount of extra heat. The marine heatwaves covering 40% of the world’s oceans are another sign of accelerating fossil fuel-driven climate change.
Climate change, El Niño, and the heat dome in the western US
The effects of ocean surface temperatures are felt on land too. A heat dome has formed in the western US, potentially lasting through July’s end for the west coast. Record-breaking temperatures have been noted, with Salt Lake City, Utah, and Helena, Montana reaching all-time highs.
Fossil fuel-driven climate change is evident in this heat dome. According to Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index, temperatures in the Mountain West (on the day Salt Lake City and Helena set records) were made five times more likely by climate change on Sunday, July 12.
The Climate Shift Index for Sunday, July 12, 2026. Places in dark red show areas that experienced temperatures made 5x more likely due to climate change. Climate Central.
You might wonder if the developing super El Niño or marine heatwaves are linked to this heat dome. Most likely, yes. The weather in the western US is often influenced by Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, as my research indicated in 2024. Another study from 2024 found that unusual storms and rainfall south of Hawaii, stemming from warmer ocean surface temperatures, affected the Pacific Northwest heatwave in 2021. The current heat dome in the western US is likely amplified by climate change and the developing super El Niño.
Earth’s climate has changed
We are navigating a new world shaped by emissions from fossil fuels. Yesterday’s climate no longer exists. El Niños will differ, marine heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, and heat domes causing unprecedented heatwaves are here to stay. However, hope remains. We know how to address the climate crisis we’ve created. Action is essential.
Here are two things you can tell your Congressional representatives today.
Stay safe and fight on.
Correction: Fossil fuel-driven climate change plus this Super El Niño could, at least temporarily, breach 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. An earlier version of the story stated that the targets are already being breached.
