President Donald Trump’s influence as a key figure in the Republican Party is undergoing a significant examination with the upcoming primaries this month. His position is currently precarious.
The president’s campaign of retribution commences this Tuesday in Indiana, where he aims to remove eight Republican state legislators who opposed his redistricting initiative. It then progresses to Louisiana and Kentucky, where he supports challengers against two longstanding adversaries, Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie, whom he has been eager to unseat for an extended period. Additionally, Trump has endorsed his preferred candidates in the competitive GOP primaries for the Alabama Senate and the Georgia governor.
Trump’s endorsements, however, have struggled to take a commanding lead, as many of his chosen candidates are only marginally ahead in polls and some are lagging in fundraising. Even in Indiana, some of Trump’s allies are tempering expectations of sweeping all eight lawmakers out of office.
The outcomes of these primaries will indicate the effectiveness of Trump’s political machinery in mobilizing Republican voters when he is not on the ballot and the extent to which MAGA supporters are willing to join his continuing campaign of retribution. This scenario serves as a powerful demonstration of his influence as he approaches a potential lame-duck phase of his presidency.
Some Republicans, including those involved in these races, suggest that the uncertain standing of Trump’s favored candidates indicates a potential decline in his ability to mobilize his base en masse. They observe that MAGA may be developing its independent perspective as the party begins to consider a future beyond the Trump era.
“He’s hit his max power and now you’re seeing the backside of that power curve,” said Adam Kinzinger, a former GOP representative who often faced Trump’s ire and retired from Congress amid backlash for his 2021 impeachment vote. “This will be his last competitive election cycle that will have any impact on him. And I think the base is starting to think into the future.”
Trump has a history of unseating congressional opponents, supporting primary challengers against his critics, and using his social media platform and official position to create politically challenging conditions that lead many of his adversaries to retire. Republican candidates have long sought his endorsement, often vying for his approval to avoid his disfavor.
“The Trump endorsement is the most powerful and influential endorsement in the history of American politics,” stated White House spokesperson Davis Ingle. “President Trump’s sterling record with his endorsements speaks for itself.”
Nonetheless, Trump’s track record in contested races is mixed. While his candidates have defeated some significant opponents, like former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and other Republicans who voted to impeach him during his first term, he has also faced notable losses. He failed to unseat Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and watched as some of his endorsed candidates fell short in congressional races over the years, including Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama and Rep. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina.
This election cycle presents additional challenges: the May primaries coincide with an unpopular war in Iran, causing voter dissatisfaction with gas prices, economic policies, immigration strategies, and Trump’s declining approval ratings.
“The [Trump] endorsement just isn’t moving voters. It just isn’t,” said a GOP operative involved in the Alabama Senate race, speaking anonymously. “When you’ve endorsed more than 800 people in 10 years, the potency of an individual endorsement wanes.”
May 5: Indiana
The redistricting battles have become a central issue for the midterms, and Tuesday’s election will test Trump’s ability to hold onto the Republican coalition.
The White House and its allies have launched a significant campaign against eight Indiana legislators, spending nearly $10 million on these races. Despite this, they are lowering expectations for a complete sweep. Critics claim that the strategy has been inconsistent and unfocused.
The number of incumbents who survive will provide key insights into how the rest of May will unfold for the White House.
“We’ve tried to be helpful, as we always are, with our colleagues that are incumbents right now and will continue to be,” Rodric Bray, Indiana’s Senate President Pro Tempore, who led opposition against Trump’s redistricting efforts, told POLITICO. “The challenge, of course, is that money matters in politics. When $9 million is spent, that has a huge impact, and we’ll see what the result is.”
May 16: Louisiana
Rep. Julia Letlow, endorsed by Trump, is finding it difficult to lead in the polls in her primary challenge against Cassidy, who angered MAGA supporters by voting to convict Trump on impeachment charges in 2021. The latest Emerson College poll places Letlow in a tight three-way race, with her at 27 percent, State Treasurer John Fleming at 28 percent, and Cassidy at 21 percent. Nearly a quarter of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided.
Letlow joined the race at Trump’s encouragement, securing endorsements from Louisiana’s GOP Gov. Jeff Landry and national groups like the Make America Healthy Again PAC, which has pledged $1 million in support through mailers—a necessary financial boost given her limited campaign funds compared to Cassidy’s.
However, Trump has not fully invested in Letlow’s campaign, withholding his financial support and not visiting Louisiana on her behalf. The president recently intensified his campaign against Cassidy, urging GOP primary voters to remove the incumbent from office, but he did not specifically mention Letlow or encourage votes for her.
May 19: Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia
Trump faces two distinct challenges in Kentucky, where he supports Rep. Andy Barr as Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor while simultaneously seeking to unseat Massie, a persistent adversary.
The president came in late to support Barr, endorsing him less than three weeks before the primary and offering one of his two rivals, businessman Nate Morris, a position in his administration—a maneuver that could help Barr surpass former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
In contrast, Massie’s 4th District race could be more problematic for Trump. After Massie voted against the party’s key tax-and-spending package last year, Trump finally backed a challenger, and his allies have invested over $10 million to defeat the incumbent.
Despite the onslaught, Massie has maintained his position, leading his rival, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in polling, fundraising, and name recognition. A recent survey indicated that half of the likely voters in his strongly Republican district with a libertarian inclination prefer an independent-minded lawmaker, compared to 37 percent who favor a strong Trump supporter.
Massie, who claims to support Trump “91 percent of the time,” argues that backing him and the president are not mutually exclusive. He believes the influx of outside money against him has limitations.
“If outside billionaires spend millions of dollars, they can change somebody’s profile,” Massie said in a recent interview. “But I think what they’re going to find out is that my brand is established well enough … that [they] can persuade some of the people, but they’re not going to be able to persuade enough of them.”
In Alabama, Trump’s motive isn’t revenge. Yet, his chosen candidate is struggling to stand out in a crowded GOP primary field for the Senate. The Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore has a slight edge in public polling, while Attorney General Steve Marshall, with nearly a decade of experience, remains competitive.
In Georgia, Trump’s endorsement of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones for governor is a direct challenge to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who gained national attention by resisting Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and is also running for governor.
Even so, Trump’s endorsement has its boundaries. Rick Jackson, a health care executive, slightly leads Jones in most polls for the GOP primary and is also targeting the MAGA base. He has been aggressively attacking the lieutenant governor with millions spent on negative ads.
“If any other candidate had received that amount of negative, they would be polling within the margin of error of zero,” said a Georgia-based Republican strategist unaffiliated with any candidate, speaking anonymously. “When you’re looking at the reasons why [Jones] is now in a toss-up race, I would say the President’s endorsement is by far the top reason why.”
As Jackson and Jones vie for the same voter base, some Republicans see Jones’ lack of dominance in the race as evidence of Trump’s declining influence.
“It’s not just Donald Trump — Georgia candidates historically have not benefited very much from endorsements from out-of-state celebrities,” said Jason Shepherd, former Cobb County GOP Chair.
May 26: Texas run-off
After Sen. John Cornyn led Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’ March primary, Republicans in Washington awaited Trump’s expected endorsement. However, it never materialized.
Perhaps as the clearest sign of MAGA beginning to operate independently of Trump’s explicit guidance, Texas Republicans have rallied around the scandal-plagued Paxton. Polling indicates that a Trump endorsement for Cornyn would likely not significantly influence voters, and Paxton would maintain his lead.
GOP Texas consultant Vinny Minchillo stated that if Trump chooses to intervene, he “will have to sell this to the faithful and tell them exactly what to do. Especially if he endorses Cornyn.”
While Trump’s endorsement remains significant, Minchillo noted, “it matters less with each passing day.”
