After the conclusion of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, ESPN host Scott Van Pelt and football analyst Tim Hasselbeck engaged in a conversation that reflected the sentiments of many discussing the blowout games that took place. The host teams emerged victorious with an average margin of 19.3 points, with Notre Dame’s 10-point win against Indiana being the closest game. Penn State, Ohio State, and Texas also secured decisive wins over their opponents.
The debate surrounding whether Indiana and SMU deserved CFP at-large bids overshadowed the reality of postseason football in both college and the NFL, where blowouts are just as common as close finishes. Since the introduction of the Playoff system in 2014, there have been a total of 40 CFP games with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points. Similarly, in the NFL playoffs during the same period, the average margin of victory was 11.1 points per game across 124 games, including 10 Super Bowls.
The data from both the CFP and NFL playoffs reveal that the outcome of postseason games is essentially a coin toss between competitive matchups and blowout victories. The statistics show that there is no guarantee of close games regardless of the round, location, level, or seeding.
In the CFP, the first round of games often sparks immediate reactions due to the participants involved. However, the scoring margins in these games were comparable to those seen in previous years. While there were criticisms of teams like Indiana, the reality is that blowout games have been a common occurrence in the history of the CFP. Since 2014, there have been more games with margins exceeding 20 points than one-score games, highlighting the prevalence of non-competitive matchups.
Similarly, the NFL playoff data reflects a similar trend, with blowouts being a regular feature in postseason games. The recent run of competitive Super Bowls stands out as an anomaly compared to the overall data, with the championship game producing the closest outcomes on average.
One interesting statistic that emerges from both the CFP and NFL playoffs is the impact of home-field advantage. In both leagues, home teams have a significant winning record, with top-seeded teams performing particularly well. Seeding has a more significant impact on the NFL playoffs compared to college football, where it was introduced for the first time this year.
Overall, the data suggests that blowout games are a common occurrence in postseason football, regardless of the level or league. While close finishes are memorable, they are not guaranteed in every game. The unpredictability of playoff football adds to the excitement and showcases the competitive nature of the sport.
