After the Supreme Court’s decision to end race-conscious college admissions in 2023, the 2024-25 academic year was closely monitored to see how freshman classes would be affected. The Upshot conducted a study of 66 selective colleges to analyze the racial and ethnic composition of their incoming classes, providing valuable insights into the impact of the ban on affirmative action.
1. Decline in Black and Hispanic Enrollment:
Historically, Black and Hispanic students have been underrepresented at selective colleges compared to their share of high school graduates. However, in 2024, the average share of incoming Black students at these colleges decreased from 7 percent to 6 percent, while the share of incoming Hispanic students fell from 14 percent to 13 percent. This decline represents the largest drop in Black or Hispanic enrollment since 2010, with some colleges experiencing significant decreases in their shares of Black or Hispanic students.
2. No Significant Increase in Asian and White Enrollment:
Despite expectations that the ban on affirmative action would lead to an increase in Asian and white enrollment at top colleges, the data did not show substantial changes. The average share of Asian students remained unchanged, while the average share of white students increased slightly. Outliers such as Johns Hopkins and Middlebury saw significant increases in the share of incoming Asian and white students, respectively.
3. Increase in Students Not Disclosing Race:
In 2024, there was an increase in the share of students who did not disclose their race or ethnicity, rising from 2 percent to 4 percent. This trend raises questions about the true racial makeup of incoming classes and the impact of students choosing not to report their race. Previous studies suggest that white and Asian students are more likely to omit their race in light of affirmative action policies.
Overall, the data from 2024 provides valuable insights into the changing landscape of college admissions post-affirmative action. However, several caveats should be considered, including the preliminary nature of the data, the complexity of enrollment versus admissions, and the impact of external factors like financial aid application issues. As colleges continue to navigate diversity initiatives without affirmative action, it will be crucial to monitor trends and outcomes in the coming years.
