His goals have been crucial, his last-minute equalizer against Manchester City in the quarterfinals kept Barcelona’s hopes alive. But it’s not just his goals that make him the best player in the competition, it’s his all-around play. Raphinha leads the field in expected assists (xA) with 5.92, creating high-quality chances for his teammates consistently. His ability to take over games and make key plays when needed sets him apart from the rest.
Why they won’t win the Champions League: Defense is shaky
For all of Barcelona’s attacking prowess, their defense leaves much to be desired. They have conceded 1.28 npxG per game in the Champions League, the highest among the remaining teams. Their backline has been vulnerable to quick counterattacks and set-piece goals, which could be exploited by more clinical teams in the knockout stages. If they are unable to tighten up defensively, their attacking brilliance may not be enough to carry them to the title.
3. Inter
Why they will win the Champions League:Â Experience and depth
Inter’s squad is full of players who have been there and done that in the Champions League. From Marco Asensio to Raheem Sterling, they have players who have won the competition before and know what it takes to navigate the knockout stages successfully. Their depth is also a key factor, with quality options in every position to rotate and keep players fresh throughout the tournament.
Inter’s defense has also been solid, conceding just 0.82 npxG per game, the second-lowest among the remaining teams. Their ability to limit their opponents’ chances and grind out results when needed makes them a tough team to beat in knockout football.
Why they won’t win the Champions League: Inconsistent attack
While Inter’s defense has been impressive, their attack has been hit or miss. They have scored just 17 goals from 22.06 xG, showing a lack of efficiency in front of goal. Their forwards have struggled to convert their chances consistently, which could cost them against more clinical teams in the later stages of the competition. If they are unable to find their scoring touch, their defensive solidity may not be enough to carry them to the title.
4. Paris Saint-Germain
Why they will win the Champions League:Â Star power and firepower
Paris Saint-Germain boast one of the most talented squads in the competition, with the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, and Neymar leading the line. Their attacking trio has been in scintillating form, scoring goals for fun and creating chances at will. With such firepower up front, they have the ability to outscore any team on their day and win games single-handedly.
PSG’s attack has been relentless, averaging 2.2 goals per game and creating 19.1 shots per game, the highest among the remaining teams. Their ability to create high-quality chances consistently and finish them off with clinical precision makes them a dangerous team to face in the knockout stages.
Why they won’t win the Champions League: Defensive vulnerabilities
Despite their attacking prowess, PSG have struggled defensively in the Champions League. They have conceded 1.05 npxG per game, the second-highest among the remaining teams. Their backline has been prone to individual errors and lapses in concentration, which have cost them goals in crucial moments. If they are unable to shore up their defense and limit their opponents’ chances, their attacking brilliance may not be enough to carry them to the title.
With just three games remaining, the race for the Champions League title is wide open. Each of the final four teams has their strengths and weaknesses, and it will come down to who can execute their game plan and perform when it matters most. The stage is set for an exciting finish to the competition, and fans can expect drama, excitement, and unforgettable moments as the final four teams battle it out for European glory.
Raphinha, the former Leeds man, has been setting the Champions League on fire with his incredible performances. Leading the competition not only for goal involvements, but also for assists and big chances created, Raphinha has been a force to be reckoned with. Only two of his opponents, Monaco and Brest, have been able to keep him from making a direct impact on the scoresheet. Surpassing legendary players like Lionel Messi and Luis Figo, Raphinha’s stats in the 2024-25 Champions League season have been nothing short of outstanding.
Despite his stellar performances, there are still doubts about whether Barcelona, Raphinha’s current team, can win the Champions League. One major concern is their high defensive line, which has been exploited by opponents in the past. While this strategy has worked well in La Liga, teams in the Champions League have found ways to bypass Barcelona’s defense. Vulnerable to long balls and counterattacks, Barcelona’s backline has allowed more through balls and xG from counter attacks than other top teams in the competition.
Moving on to Inter, another contender in the Champions League, their recent experience in the competition sets them apart. With a squad filled with players who have extensive Champions League experience, Inter has been a regular fixture in the knockout stages. However, despite their seasoned roster, Inter’s lack of creativity in front of goal could hinder their chances of winning the title. With a goal difference that relies heavily on penalties and a middling npxG per game, Inter may struggle to keep up with the top teams in the competition.
Lastly, Paris Saint-Germain, under the guidance of Luis Enrique, have emerged as serious contenders for the Champions League title. Their cohesive team play and effective press have propelled them to the top echelons of European football. With a renewed focus on team chemistry and a solid defensive structure, PSG are primed for a deep run in the competition. The stage seems set for PSG to make a strong push for the Champions League trophy, with the odds in their favor.
In conclusion, the 2024-25 Champions League season promises to be an exciting and competitive one, with teams like Barcelona, Inter, and PSG vying for glory. While each team has its strengths and weaknesses, only time will tell which side will emerge victorious in the end. With star players like Raphinha leading the charge, fans can expect thrilling matches and unforgettable moments as the tournament unfolds. Paris Saint-Germain’s playing style in the 2024-25 season is a reflection of a cohesive midfield dictating the game, rather than relying on individual forwards to make things happen. The attackers now interchange seamlessly, creating an “everybody eats” mentality where goals can come from any player on the pitch.
One of the most notable changes in this new PSG is their defensive work rate. The team has become more efficient in winning back possession, with an impressive 9.2 passes allowed per defensive action. This is the second-lowest in the competition, showcasing their ability to press high and disrupt their opponents’ build-up play. Additionally, PSG leads the league in ball recoveries in the front two-thirds of the pitch, winning the ball back an average of 31.1 times per game. Their dominance in defensive duels further highlights their commitment to regaining possession.
However, despite their defensive prowess, there is a glaring weakness in PSG’s attack that could hinder their chances of winning the Champions League. The team has a tendency to take poor shots, with an xG per shot of 0.107, below the competition average. A concerning 34.8% of their shots come from outside the box, indicating a reliance on long-range efforts rather than creating high-quality scoring opportunities.
In big games, PSG’s shot quality dips even further, with an xG of 0.087 against top opponents like Liverpool and Aston Villa. While spectacular goals like those from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Desire Doue are celebrated, a consistent diet of low-quality shots could be exploited by tactically astute teams like Arsenal in the semifinals.
Overall, PSG’s new playing style under Luis Enrique has brought about a more cohesive and dynamic team, with a strong emphasis on defensive intensity and collective attacking play. However, their susceptibility to taking poor shots could be their downfall in the Champions League unless they address this issue and improve their shot selection in crucial moments.
