As early as May, farms and ranchlands across much of the United States are already facing hot, dry conditions typically seen later in the summer months. Approximately 61 percent of the continental U.S. is currently experiencing some level of drought as of May 5, with the most severe impacts in the Southeast, High Plains, and Western regions. The 2026 drought has led to an intense early wildfire season and has caused a significant drop in surface and groundwater levels. These conditions are exacerbated by the Trump administration’s tariffs and the controversial conflict with Iran, which have increased fertilizer and energy costs, potentially raising food prices and affecting livelihoods.
Communities, particularly in rural areas, are grappling with multi-year drought conditions worsened by climate change. Urgent attention and action from Congress are needed before the situation deteriorates further.
Current U.S. Drought Situation
The most recent map from the U.S. Drought Monitor highlights widespread abnormally dry conditions. According to NOAA’s Palmer Drought Severity Index, March recorded its lowest soil moisture levels for the contiguous U.S. since 1895.
Nearly all (99 percent) of the Southeast is experiencing drought, with 62 percent facing severe to exceptional conditions. The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) reports that Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina have faced record dry conditions from September 2025 to March 2026, surpassing records since 1895. Water levels are significantly low, and the region is dealing with spring wildfires, with fire risks projected to remain high through at least July.
Florida is in a critical state, with 82 percent of the state in extreme or exceptional drought. NASA data indicates severe impacts on groundwater supplies crucial for drinking and agriculture. The drought has also negatively affected the state’s citrus crop and left alligators without habitats.link
The Southern Plains and the Southwest have been in a prolonged drought for six years, with current hot, dry conditions worsening the situation. A strong El Niño might help some areas later this summer, but relief remains uncertain, and significant water deficits exist. Nebraska, with 88 percent of its area in drought, suffered devastating wildfires this spring.
In the western U.S., nearly 60 percent of Colorado and Utah face extreme or exceptional drought. A recent snowstorm brought more snow than the entire winter but is unlikely to significantly alleviate drought conditions. Water management challenges in the Colorado River basin have reached a critical point, forcing even Doug Burgum, the climate-denying Secretary of the Interior, to acknowledge the issue.
The Sierra Nevada snowpack is alarmingly low, threatening future water supplies for up to 30 million Californians. A March heatwave, deemed “virtually impossible without human-induced climate change” by a World Weather Attribution study, has worsened the situation.
Impact of 2026 Drought on Agriculture
The ongoing drought is already affecting the spring planting season. Recent data indicates that many key crops are in jeopardy. According to the USDA’s weekly weather and crop bulletin, “Rain continued to bypass the central and southern High Plains, leaving rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat in desperate need of moisture…”
Currently, 70 percent of the winter wheat, 98 percent of the cotton, and 61 percent of the cattle are situated in drought-stricken areas.
The Link Between Drought and Food Prices
Persistent drought could lower crop yields and force ranchers to reduce their cattle numbers, posing a threat to livelihoods, particularly for small and midsize farmers already struggling. A reduced agricultural output is expected to drive up food prices, already impacted by tariffs and the conflict with Iran.
U.S. beef prices, which have been increasing since last year, are expected to climb further as ranchers find it challenging to maintain their cattle. Prolonged drought can also affect herd size decisions over several years. The drought’s impact on the U.S. spring wheat crop is beginning to influence international wheat markets. These effects are just starting to emerge but could worsen rapidly without significant precipitation during the growing season.
The 2012 drought offers harsh lessons for potential future scenarios, including impacts on agriculture, food, water, power supplies, and navigation on drought-affected waterways, notably the Mississippi.
Addressing This Year’s Drought and Future Preparations
As drought challenges farmers, the taxpayer-subsidized Federal Crop and Livestock Insurance Program will provide necessary support. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has highlighted the crop insurance program as a high-risk area for the federal government, with risks increasing due to climate change. In the past year, the USDA has distributed nearly $18 billion in supplemental disaster aid under the American Relief Act of 2025. More taxpayer money may be required if the summer remains hot and dry, with the USDA extending the program’s application deadline to August.
Climate change is fundamentally altering conditions for U.S. agriculture, creating unprecedented risks and uncertainties for farmers’ and ranchers’ livelihoods. The Climate Toolbox for agriculture is a critical resource for understanding climate change’s effects on the agricultural sector.
Drought can severely impact health, including mental health, making it essential for communities and health professionals to have resources to manage these challenges. Given this, it is concerning that the president’s budget proposal for next year would cut funding for the USDA’s regional Climate Hubs, which assist farmers with climate risk assessments and resilience strategies.
The drought’s impact on water supplies affects all communities dependent on water, particularly in the Southwest and California, where the crisis is acute. Poor choices in water management and development could lead to conflicts over dwindling water availability. Often, less affluent or politically powerful communities, Tribal Nations, and agricultural workers are disadvantaged compared to larger agricultural interests and wealthier communities. Amanda Fencl notes that the snow drought’s effects extend beyond hydrologic droughts to water rights.
Drought also threatens hydropower resources. The EIA’s latest forecast predicts that U.S. hydropower generation will remain 1.8% below the 10-year average due to snow drought conditions in some states. Efforts are underway to restore water levels in Lake Powell sufficiently to maintain hydropower generation, a situation worth monitoring as summer progresses.
Urgency for Congressional Action
Immediate congressional action is necessary to anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of the 2026 drought on communities. This includes addressing risks to agriculture, water supplies, and livelihoods, as well as preparing for dangerous wildfire conditions before disaster strikes. It also means countering the Trump administration’s harmful policies affecting federal agencies like the USDA and the U.S. Forest Service, which play crucial roles in preparing and protecting the public from drought and wildfire impacts.
The recent House-passed farm bill, as noted by colleagues, is inadequate as it fails to address the increasing threats of climate change to farmers and ranchers while promoting unsustainable overproduction of climate-intensive commodity crops and undermining the affordability of healthy food for families.
U.S. consumers are already facing affordability challenges for many necessities, including energy and insurance, and adding food to this list will significantly impact low-income families. While it is essential to invest in resilience measures to address climate-induced drought conditions, it is equally crucial to significantly reduce heat-trapping emissions. Transitioning swiftly from fossil fuels to clean energy is vital to prevent future generations from experiencing relentless megadroughts.
The economic and human costs of climate change are evident. Policymakers who ignore these realities and favor the fossil fuel industry are irresponsibly putting everyone at greater risk.
