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American Focus > Blog > Environment > Worst case scenario
Environment

Worst case scenario

Last updated: October 15, 2025 5:51 am
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In 2024, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have surged to unprecedented heights, marking a concerning spike that will contribute to long-term global warming, according to United Nations experts.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) released its annual report, emphasizing that other significant greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxides, have also reached record levels over the past year.

This major increase is attributed to ongoing emissions from human activities and a rise in wildfires.

Accelerating Change

Additionally, Earth’s oceans and terrestrial environments have absorbed less carbon dioxide, potentially setting off a negative cycle as their capacity to sequester this greenhouse gas diminishes due to rising temperatures.

Ko Barrett, the WMO deputy secretary-general, noted: “The energy retained by CO2 and other greenhouse gases is accelerating climate change and triggering more severe weather events.”

She added, “It’s crucial to reduce emissions not only for the climate’s sake but also for economic stability and community health.”

The yearly increase of carbon dioxide has dramatically escalated, tripling from an annual average of 0.8 parts per million (ppm) in the 1960s to 2.4 ppm during the decade spanning 2011-2020.

According to the WMO, there was a notable rise of 3.5 ppm in carbon dioxide levels between 2023 and 2024, the largest jump recorded since comprehensive measurements began in 1957.

Wildfire Impact

Current carbon dioxide concentrations have reached 423 ppm, rising from 377 ppm when the first annual greenhouse gas report was published in 2004, representing an increase of 52 percent over pre-industrial levels of 278 ppm, as reported by the WMO.

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While the carbon dioxide emissions in play today are impacting the global climate, their effects will persist for centuries due to the gas’s longevity in the atmosphere.

About half of the carbon dioxide emitted annually is absorbed by forests, land ecosystems, and oceans.

However, as temperatures rise globally, oceans are less effective at absorbing CO2 since it dissolves less efficiently at higher temperatures, while land ecosystems capture less carbon due to factors like increasing drought conditions.

The significant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2024 is largely influenced by wildfire emissions and a reduced capacity of land and ocean carbon “sinks,” coinciding with what is expected to be the hottest year on record, compounded by a strong El Niño weather pattern.

Conservation Needed

During El Niño years, carbon storage capabilities in terrestrial sinks often decrease, resulting from drier vegetation and increased forest fires, as witnessed in droughts and fires across the Amazon and southern Africa in 2024, according to the WMO.

Senior scientific officer Oksana Tarasova remarked, “It is worrying that both terrestrial and oceanic CO2 sinks may be losing efficiency, which will lead to greater amounts of CO2 lingering in the atmosphere, thereby speeding up global warming.”

She emphasized, “Robust and ongoing monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions is essential for comprehending these cycles.”

Alec Hutchings, WWF’s chief climate advisor, stressed the urgency of the situation, saying, “The drastic increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide last year raises significant alarm. Our planet’s ecosystems, including land and oceans, have absorbed about half of our emissions to date, but we are overextending these natural systems, and they cannot keep pace.”

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He concluded, “We must not only focus on cutting climate emissions but also urgently safeguard our ecosystems, which are our most valuable allies in addressing climate change.”

Author Information

Emily Beament serves as the environment correspondent for the PA.

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