Your Beliefs About Crime Become Your Crime Policies | Crime in America.Net

Crime in America: A Comprehensive Analysis

This article is now available as a podcast on YouTube.

This piece was prepared to accompany my appearance on an episode of Heroes Behind The Badge.

A recent AP-NORC poll indicates that a majority of Americans approve of Trump’s approach to crime.

During my time in higher education, especially concerning Constitutional law and history, I emphasized that the perspectives and rights of individual citizens are crucial and must be recognized. We are ethically bound to ensure the safety and equitable treatment of all Americans. Is the President fulfilling this duty by deploying National Guard troops?

We find ourselves amidst a cultural conflict regarding troop deployments and crime perceptions. In any conflict, both parties often amplify their narratives.

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For a thorough overview of the crime rates in recent years, visit Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.

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Citations referenced in this article can be found in Violent and Property Crime in the US.

Note

This article was created to support my feature on an episode of Heroes Behind The Badge.

Opinion

Transitioning from law enforcement to academia, I recognized that crime influences a multitude of societal facets including employment rates, economic stability, education outcomes, and community structure. Hence, addressing crime is not merely a law enforcement issue but a fundamental human rights concern.

We are presently involved in a national dialogue around crime, catalyzed by the President’s decision to involve federal agents and the National Guard in Washington, D.C., and other urban areas. This approach marks a significant departure from traditional crime response strategies, leaving us to await historical judgments on its effectiveness.

An influx of media narratives suggests that crime is substantially in decline, often insinuating that skepticism around this perspective is misguided. This viewpoint, although subtly conveyed, raises the question: how could one possibly deny improvements in their lives?

Substantial funds are being allocated by various foundations to assert that crime is declining dramatically. Numerous events, including seminars and podcasts, advocate the perception of falling crime rates. One organization has even suggested that the media mitigate harsh imagery when covering law enforcement matters.

Why is this so pivotal? Progressive foundations hold significant sway over the narrative surrounding crime analysis; a large portion of crime data disseminated in the media originates from outlets they finance. Journalists and criminologists sourcing this data frequently omit potential biases, presenting these analyses as neutral, when in fact they may not be.

Funds are being invested to construct a narrative indicating that crime is declining and that public concern is unwarranted. While controlling the message can be acceptable, transparency regarding funding sources and biases is crucial, allowing citizens to evaluate the credibility of these narratives.

Two Perspectives on Crime

Through my observations, I’ve discerned two overarching perspectives on crime: individuals urging accountability among offenders versus those who view the justice system as oppressive and in dire need of transformation.

Which perspective holds weight? Those who regard crime as a pervasive issue affecting every aspect of life will see the world through a different lens than those advocating for compassion and empathy in response to criminal acts.

A recent CBS News article illustrates that the President’s actions receive either support or condemnation based on one’s political alignment. Hence, we are entrenched in a cultural clash regarding troop deployments and crime perceptions. History teaches us that exaggeration is inherent in such conflicts.

In various urban locales, there are widespread concerns regarding prolonged wait times for police response—sometimes exceeding an hour or resulting in no officer arriving at all. For instance, in Detroit, many residents assert that response to property crimes is virtually absent. The resulting ambiguity breeds anxiety amongst the populace—an unequivocal reflection of community sentiments regarding crime.

Are Violent Crime Rates Decreasing?

Indeed, reported crime figures reflect a notable decrease. A favorable development, but does this imply safety? Absolutely not.

The FBI’s latest analytics indicate a 4.5 percent reduction in violent crime in 2024, while a 3.0 percent decrease was recorded in 2023 in comparison to 2022. However, it’s vital to contextualize these figures—homicides surged by 50 percent and aggravated assaults soared by 36 percent from 2019 to 2022, as documented by the Major Cities Chiefs Association. The observed reductions could merely represent a regression to the average following previous increases.

Celebrating a marginal decline in crime rates may lead to misplaced optimism. While certain categories exhibit more pronounced decreases, overall violence statistics reflect minimal improvement. Moreover, as per the FBI, crime continues its decline in 2025, although preliminary results often yield lower figures than final annual data. This illustrates the challenges associated with timely and accurate crime reporting.

In the concluding analysis, those believing that crime reductions are significant may view the President’s measures in D.C. and beyond as questionable constitutional endeavors motivated by political expedience.

Conversely, if one perceives urban areas as perilous, regardless of reported reductions, they may embrace these interventions as a much-needed response. Ultimately, perceptions of crime shape our understanding of personal and community safety.

Examining Urban Crime: The Shadow of Unreported Crime

Statistics indicate that only about 38% of violent victimizations in urban settings get reported to law enforcement. This figure is lower than the reporting rates found in suburban (43%) and rural (51%) settings, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

The rate of rape and sexual assault cases reported in rural regions stands at 52%, which is almost four times the proportion recorded in urban areas (13%), and double that of suburban areas (29%). Reporting rates for simple assaults are also noticeably higher in suburban (39%) and rural areas (46%) compared to cities (32%). Simple assaults alone account for nearly 55% to 60% of total reported violent crimes—as derived from ChatGPT data.

These figures underscore a critical point: with only 38% of all urban violent crimes documented, the vast majority remain undisclosed. The grim reality is that a mere 13% of rapes are reported, highlighting the extent of victimization endured by individuals. If only 32% of simple assaults are noted, it leads to an unsettling conclusion—many perpetrators operate unencumbered.

Therefore, when discussing crime in urban arts, there is little to celebrate considering that a majority of offenses occur without police knowledge. Even slight reductions in violent crime should be scrutinized, as they may not reflect true trends.

Substantial funding is directed toward creating narratives insisting crime is in steep decline while neglecting factors such as unreported crime and victimization rates sourced from the National Crime Victimization Survey.

The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS): Our Primary Crime Data Source

The NCVS provides pivotal data for two complete reporting cycles, revealing the most significant rise in violent crime rates in American history in 2022.

According to the NCVS, conducted by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, citizens aged 12 and older participate in this comprehensive national survey. It serves as the primary source of the nation’s crime statistics.

A recent report from 2023 indicated a record 44% increase in violent crime as analyzed by Jeff Asher and corroborated by The Marshall Project. The press release on September 12, 2024, concerning the latest NCVS data highlights that while non-fatal violent victimization rates were statistically similar in 2023 and 2022—standing at approximately 22.5 victimizations per 1,000 individuals aged 12 or older—there’s no room for complacency.

Anticipation surrounds the release of the NCVS data for 2024, though outcomes remain to be seen.

Heightened Anxiety About Crime

Amid President Trump’s crime reduction measures in Washington, D.C., various publications caution Democrats against appearing indifferent to the struggles of crime victims, a sentiment widely shared among Americans.

Gallup reports significant national anxiety surrounding crime, where around 65 percent of D.C. residents alerted The Washington Post that crime was a “very” or “extremely” serious issue last year, despite a reduction in violent incidents. Further, an AP-NORC poll reveals that a majority of Americans now perceive crime management as a relative strength for President Trump.

D.C. residents’ anxiety reflects broader public sentiment, with 68% acknowledging that crime is a “major problem” in urban settings, even if they disapprove of the President’s methods.

In my personal experiences visiting cities troubled by crime—a trend often exacerbated in minority communities—I have yet to encounter a locality whose residents didn’t express a desire for crime control or a palpable apprehension of violence.

Assessing America’s Most Dangerous Cities

President Trump proclaims that numerous cities resemble crime-ridden hubs. Is this assertion valid?

Just recently, shootings across Chicago claimed at least 18 lives, with six reported fatalities, echoing a disturbing trend. Yet, many assert that crime in Chicago is considerably decreasing, illustrated by the lowest summer murder rates since 1965.

So, what truth lies behind these contrasting narratives? Is Chicago indeed a crime nexus or a testament to declining crime rates?

From my perspective, each side exaggerates their figures and data. I speak from direct experience assisting political campaigns; experiences have shown me that crime statistics are often manipulated for political gain. My warnings about the manipulation of crime figures historically met resistance, yet awareness was fostered among some senior campaign advisors.

Questions linger about whether cities like Chicago and Baltimore truly merit that label as the most dangerous locales in America. Comprehensive insight would necessitate that we analyze data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, pinpointing it to localities. The Bureau of Justice Statistics is currently testing this with geo-located data—see state data.

Due to the fact that 38% of violent crimes in urban settings go unreported, we’re likely missing a significant portion of violent incidents, leading to a skewed portrayal of “the most dangerous city”. Crime indices often derive from reported incidences, reaffirming that the data falls short in providing a complete picture of crime.

For further information on the “most dangerous” cities, see here. The statistics are primarily pulled from FBI data, which again highlights that not all crimes are accounted for.

“Most Dangerous Places in the U.S.” is also featured in reports from US News and World Report, which relies on reported crime rates.

It’s imperative to note that different indices apply varying criteria, leading to diverse outcomes in subsequent reports—underscoring why I prefer to sidestep exhaustive rankings of the most dangerous locales. Variations emerge when contrasting numbers and rates, population sizes, income demographics, and even focusing solely on homicide rates transmute findings. Geographically, cities housing over 500,000 populations yield inconsistent findings. Cities differ significantly in their nature, with a stark contrast observed between compact cities in Louisiana vs. larger metropolitan areas such as Baltimore, Memphis, Detroit, and St. Louis.

One international index ranks 21 U.S. cities among the world’s most dangerous, including Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Chicago.

Those with extensive experience in crime studies recognize the versatility of claims made concerning crime statistics. However, it’s crucial for readers to comprehend that reported crime declines are apparent in most cities across the nation, underscoring that this may reflect a national regression to adjusted statistical norms rather than effective crime prevention practices. Besides, analogous trends are emerging in other Western industrialized nations, which will be explored in a forthcoming article.

Final Thoughts

What conclusions can we draw? A recent discussion on the left-leaning show “Morning Joe” (MSNBC) poignantly highlighted the Democratic Party’s challenges pertaining to crime management during an interview with Chicago’s Mayor Brandon Johnson. When a mainstream platform questions the rationale behind deploying troops and federal agents in cities, it dwells upon a significant perception challenge for progressives.

Is reported crime decreasing? Yes, but only marginally at a national level. Are crime rates according to the National Crime Victimization Survey rising? Yes, at unprecedented rates. Is the fear of crime at an all-time high? Absolutely.

This discussion shouldn’t be pigeonholed to President Trump or those critical of him; with crime being a foremost concern for many Americans, a potent, actionable strategy to enhance safety is warranted, regardless of statistical analysis.

Progressives may inadvertently sabotage their own messaging. Democratic think tanks are urging a reevaluation of how they convey crime-related topics, cautioning against appearing out of touch with public concerns regarding safety.

On the contrary, critics of President Trump contend that he’s dictating a polarized agenda, asserting that crime has diminished and that fears from the public are unfounded. Such sentiments cast doubt on the validity of citizens’ concerns.

In summary, my education emphasized the importance of honoring individual perceptions and rights, thus reminding us of our responsibility to safeguard all citizens. Is the President effectively addressing these issues? Only forthcoming judicial outcomes will provide insights. However, initial results of his D.C. interventions appear promising.

Employing ChatGPT for Verifying Facts

ChatGPT has been utilized to fact-check this article and has provided valuable suggestions.

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