Zohran dominates in new poll

With help from Amira McKee

CUOMO CONUNDRUM:

Democratic mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani appears to be on a victory lap, boasting a commanding 50 percent of the vote in a fresh general election poll funded by his supporters. In this five-way race, former Governor Andrew Cuomo lags significantly at 22 percent, with Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing at 13 percent and current Mayor Eric Adams scraping together a mere 7 percent among likely voters. Attorney Jim Walden barely registered with 1 percent.

“Our independent poll is unprecedented, being the first of this cycle offered in four languages while delving into national origins and religious affiliations. The data makes one thing abundantly clear: diverse demographic groups—including Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers across various income levels—are all aboard the Zohran Mamdani express, destined for the future of the Democratic Party,” stated Amit Singh Bagga, principal at Public Progress Solutions and a seasoned figure in federal, city, and state governance.

Bagga’s firm collaborated with Adam Carlson’s Zenith Research to design and analyze the poll, which was funded via private donations to Bagga, who also provided advisory support for Mamdani’s campaign during the primary. The polling was conducted by Verasight and included responses from 1,453 registered voters—1,021 of whom were categorized as “likely” voters—between July 16 and 24, just days prior to a tragic shooting in Midtown Manhattan that resulted in the deaths of four individuals, including one NYPD officer.

Interestingly, while Mamdani was celebrating his wedding in Uganda during the poll’s execution, he is scheduled to return to New York City on Wednesday morning. The poll’s findings suggest that even if Cuomo were somehow able to consolidate his rivals for a one-on-one showdown, Mamdani still leads with a score of 52-40 among likely voters. His advantage narrows to just 3 points when considering all registered voters, and in a direct comparison to Adams, Mamdani’s lead expands, clocking in at 59-32 with likely voters and 55-32 with registered voters.

As the November 4 election approaches, Mamdani’s position appears strong, with only 32 percent of likely voters expressing that they wouldn’t consider voting for him, in stark contrast to Cuomo’s 60 percent and Adams’ 68 percent rejection rate.

“With most voters indicating they wouldn’t even dream of voting for Cuomo, Adams’ favorability rating being lower than Trump’s, and Sliwa stuck in the low teens, it’s difficult to envision anyone posing a serious threat to Mamdani in a fractured field,” Carlson remarked in his statement.

This survey marks the first significant public poll following Cuomo’s announcement of his campaign after his primary defeat. Respondents were queried using a hybrid online panel, and the poll carries a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Cuomo, however, took issue with the poll’s assumptions, particularly regarding Mamdani’s expected youth turnout. “The only aspect of the poll worth considering is its reflection of registered voters,” Cuomo commented to Playbook. “As we learned in the primary, turnout assumptions are fraught with uncertainty. Some believe we’ll see a surge of young voters; others predict an anti-socialist backlash or a pro-Israel wave. It’s anyone’s guess.”

Yet, despite Cuomo’s skepticism, the poll indicates Mamdani holds a 16-point lead among registered voters, receiving 42 percent in a five-way race compared to Cuomo’s 26, Sliwa’s 12, Adams’ 7, and Walden’s 1. — Jeff Coltin & Jason Beeferman

HEASTIE WILL VOTE DEMOCRAT (WE ASSUME):

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie has hinted he may cast his vote for Mamdani but has been coy about explicitly endorsing the democratic socialist candidate. When pressed by a reporter about his voting intentions, Heastie responded with a chuckle, “Do we ask people who they vote for? I’m a Democrat, and I support Democrats. I’ve never voted for anyone outside of the party.”

During a visit to a local musical theater in Schenectady, Heastie dodged the question of whether his strong party-line voting history might change for the mayoral election. After a brief silence, his press aide jumped in to steer the conversation in a different direction.

However, Heastie did mention that he has been in regular communication with Mamdani. “Zohran and I have had loads of communications. It’s essential for me, as the speaker, to convey the collective concerns of our body, and I’ve shared insights on what he needs to do to secure my support,” Heastie stated. — Jason Beeferman

GUN CONTROL PLEAS:

In the wake of a Midtown shooting that claimed six lives—including that of an NYPD officer—New York Democrats have called upon Congress for stricter gun control measures. However, the likelihood of any such legislation passing remains slim, given the current Republican majority in Washington.

Governor Kathy Hochul and Heastie both emphasized the need for national action, acknowledging that New York’s relatively stringent gun laws cannot prevent individuals from procuring weapons in states with looser regulations. The alleged shooter reportedly traveled from Nevada to carry out the crime.

“We need a national awakening. This conversation shouldn’t be limited to moments of tragedy; it must become a continuous dialogue that compels Republicans to recognize that lives can be saved through sensible legislation,” Hochul urged in an interview with CNN.

In response to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed New York’s concealed carry law unconstitutional, Hochul successfully pushed through a series of gun law reforms, including raising the minimum age to purchase firearms from 18 to 21 following a mass shooting in Buffalo in 2022.

Heastie echoed Hochul’s sentiments, questioning, “When is this country going to wake up to the dangers of allowing citizens to possess military-style weapons? No other developed nation permits such practices.” — Nick Reisman

AMEND TO THAT:

Heastie has indicated a willingness to revise New York’s redistricting laws in response to aggressive moves by red states to redraw their congressional boundaries.

“We should explore options to counteract Republican maneuvers at this point,” Heastie remarked to reporters today. Although New York Democrats have limited avenues to influence next year’s elections, Hochul recently suggested she might be open to revising the state’s congressional lines.

One potential long-term strategy is to pursue a constitutional amendment—a multi-year initiative culminating in a voter referendum that would permit New York to engage in redistricting mid-decade if another state undertakes a similar process. Heastie expressed openness to advancing this measure, initially introduced by state Senator Mike Gianaris and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, as first reported by POLITICO on Monday.

“This doesn’t need to be executed immediately; it can be addressed in the upcoming year,” he added. — Nick Reisman

DELGADO WANTS SPECIAL SESSION:

Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, a gubernatorial primary contender, is advocating for the state Legislature to convene a special session to safeguard against anticipated federal cuts. However, Heastie has indicated that a swift return to Albany for lawmakers is improbable.

Delgado is set to join state Senator Kristen Gonzalez and Assemblymembers George Alvarez, Amanda Septimo, Phara Souffrant Forrest, and Claire Valdez for a public rally in Manhattan on Thursday to advocate for a special session. This demonstrates support from a faction of progressive lawmakers, even as most Democratic representatives remain hesitant to openly back Delgado over Hochul.

The event is organized by several left-leaning advocacy groups, including Citizen Action, VOCAL-NY, and Make the Road.

Despite Delgado’s push, Heastie reiterated that discussions about a special session have not yet occurred. “We haven’t had any discussions about that,” he stated.

Looking ahead, Heastie declared that his “primary focus” for the upcoming legislative session will be to “mitigate the damage inflicted by Republicans who continue to disguise their actions.” — Jason Beeferman

— SINCE 2000: The mass shooting in a Midtown building on Monday night was New York’s deadliest shooting in 25 years. (New York Times)

— CONTESTED BALLOTS: The New York City Board of Elections is set to certify results from a GOP primary for a Brooklyn City Council seat Tuesday, despite allegations of voter fraud. (New York Daily News)

— ‘YOU AND YOUR EGO’: Cuomo accused Adams of being a “spoiler” motivated by personal pride during a conversation with reporters at the Columbian Day Parade. (New York Post)

— MTA OUTAGE: A power outage has caused significant delays and suspensions across several subway lines today. (Gothamist)

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