Last week, the NHL made headlines by announcing significant increases to the salary cap over the next three seasons. The cap is set to rise to $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in 2026-27, and $113.5 million in 2027-28. These jumps have major implications for player contracts across the league.
One player who stands to benefit greatly from these cap increases is Connor McDavid. The Edmonton Oilers superstar’s current contract expires in 2026, just as the cap is projected to surpass $100 million. McDavid is widely regarded as the best player in the world, and his next deal is expected to be historic. The question on everyone’s mind is whether he could become the NHL’s first $20 million player.
In a rapidly growing cap environment, McDavid’s value is unprecedented. A league-max deal at 20 percent of the cap in 2026-27 would equate to $20.8 million. According to projections, McDavid is the only player in the league currently worth 20 percent of the cap or more. His projected value in 2026-27 is estimated at $21.3 million, making him a true blank check player.
Despite concerns about McDavid’s age (he will be 29 when his new deal kicks in), his exceptional talent and the rising cap suggest that his value will remain high for years to come. Even with a conservative outlook on cap growth post-2027-28, McDavid’s average value over an eight-year deal is expected to be around 18.5 percent of the cap. This could translate to a contract worth $20 million, representing 15.8 percent on the aggressive side and up to 16.9 percent on the conservative side.
While a $20 million contract may seem staggering, it would be well worth it for a player of McDavid’s caliber. In comparison to top players in other major sports leagues who earn upwards of $50 million per season, the NHL is still playing catch-up. McDavid has the opportunity to set a new benchmark and pave the way for higher player salaries in the league.
As the salary cap continues to rise, even a $20 million deal for McDavid leaves room for additional roster moves around him. The potential benefits of locking in a generational talent like McDavid at a premium price point are clear, even if the initial cost may cause some sticker shock.
In conclusion, the NHL’s escalating salary cap opens the door for players like Connor McDavid to command unprecedented contracts. With McDavid poised to become the league’s first $20 million player, the landscape of player salaries is set to undergo a significant shift in the coming years. As the league approaches parity with other major sports leagues in terms of player compensation, the stage is set for a new era of financial growth and opportunity for NHL players.
