The Actor Awards Commentary (Updated: Nov. 24, 2025): The Screen Actors Guild Awards have a new name, but their significance within the awards season remains unchanged.
Now called The Actor Awards, nominations will be announced on Jan. 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote — the largest voting body of any major awards show — the results often reflect populist tastes and broad mainstream appeal.
This year’s eligibility window covers performances released between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be a competitive field across all categories.
Still, history suggests familiar patterns may persist. The nomination committee and wider voting membership historically lean toward English-language performances, a tendency that could challenge international contenders despite critical acclaim.
The ensemble race is especially crowded. Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” is entering as an early frontrunner with a star-studded cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, a lineup that fits the guild’s well-established preference for recognizable names.
Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” arrives with Broadway pedigree and cultural phenomenon status, boosted by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Netflix’s “Jay Kelly” could give the streamer a high-profile ensemble entry with George Clooney and Adam Sandler leading the charge.
Last year’s winner, Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), continues his momentum with A24’s “Marty Supreme.” Notably, no film actor has ever won back-to-back SAG Awards. That could open the door for someone else to take the top spot.
Leonardo DiCaprio returns to contention with “One Battle After Another,” potentially extending his streak of major studio collaborations. However, Ethan Hawke is viewed by many (though not all — at least not yet) as a major contender for Sony Pictures Classics’ “Blue Moon.” With decades of collaborations across the industry, Hawke could benefit from deep goodwill among actors, making him a compelling dark horse who has long been considered overdue.
Noticeably absent from these early projections is Wagner Moura for Brazil’s “The Secret Agent.” Despite emphatic praise from critics, the guild’s long-standing hesitation to nominate non-English language performances — see Sandra Hüller’s omission for “Anatomy of a Fall” — remains a barrier.
Still, Stellan Skarsgård could break through that trend with his turn in the Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value,” along with his co-star Renate Reinsve, who is vying for recognition in the lead actress category.
When it comes to best actress, it still looks to be Jessie Buckley’s to lose from “Hamnet,” but there could be room for some outside the box contenders to sneak in, such as Lucy Liu from the indie drama “Rosemead.”
Supporting actress is shaping up to be equally competitive. Grande, delivering a vocal and dramatic showcase in “Wicked: For Good,” emerges as a serious player that goes beyond her music career. Emily Blunt’s turn in “The Smashing Machine,” opposite Dwayne Johnson, gives her another strong shot with a guild that has rewarded her consistently throughout her career.
Check out the predictions in all film and TV categories below.
